WHY WAITING FOR HAMELS IS THE RIGHT MOVE

This off-season is eerily similar to last off-season following the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. Very quiet, and not much going on barring a few bargain bin pickups here and there. Like last off-season, the Yankees had a great chance at acquiring a number two starter (or in this case a co-ace in Cliff Lee), but whiffed This time they decided to pass on the likes of Yu Darvish, CJ Wilson, and Gio Gonzalez while it seems they'll be passing on guys like Hiroki Kuroda, Roy Oswalt, Matt Garza, and Edwin Jackson. As the hours pass and the lack of big moves, this sure looks like another "patience" year. But fear not BYB freaks, this is no ordinary patience year. This patience year may lead to a big prize, which could be Cole Hamels.If you read my piece titled WHY CASHMAN HAS A LONG-TERM PLAN a few weeks back, you'd know that Cashman and Co. may be mapping out a plan to keep the team under the $189 million luxury tax cap by the 2014 season. But, I also noted in my piece that this could be a huge smokescreen that everyone, including myself, gets suckered into while they sign a guy like Cole Hamels to a huge deal, while stating Hamels would be for another piece. Well ladies and gentleman, that piece for another day, is today.
Before we dive into Philly's payroll flexibilities, I want to explain why Cole Hamels is a bona fide ace and deserves ace money, almost at the level of CC Sabathia money. Look at how he's done the last four seasons...

2008-2011:

50-41, 3.29 ERA, 845.2 innings, 8.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 1.13 WHIP, 44.4 GB%, 126 ERA+, 16.6 WAR

At 28 years old, Hamels is right in the beginning of his prime years, as he'll be 29 years old if/when he reaches free agency, and based on the numbers the last four seasons, he's worth a big contract. In fact, if you look at his last two seasons, you'll agree with me further...

2010-2011:

26-20, 2.92 ERA, 424.2 innings, 8.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 1.08 WHIP, 48.5 GB%, 136 ERA+, 8.6 WAR

If you still don't agree with me, don't forget, Hamels is left handed--which is huge for pitching your home games at Yankee Stadium--and his agent is John Boggs, not Scott Boras. Finally, not to mention, he's 7-4 with a 3.09 ERA career in the postseason while winning the 2008 World Series MVP, which is pretty neat, albeit in a small sample.

Look, Cole Hamels is still under the Phillies' control through the end of the 2012 season, we already know that, but what we don't know is if the Phillies have enough dough in their pockets to re-sign him. Let's take a quick look at the guaranteed dollars on the Phillies payroll for the 2013 season, courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts....

• Roy Halladay- $20M
• Ryan Howard- $20M
• Chase Utley- $15.286M
• Cliff Lee- $25M
• Jonathan Papelbon- $13M
• Placido Polanco, Ty Wigginton, Carlos Ruiz, Jose Contreas, Laynce Nix- $3.8M
  

Those players total to about $97 million in guarantees. In case you didn't notice, guys like Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino are not on the guaranteed payroll. Pence will be entering his fourth year of arbitration while Victorino is a free agent. With Pence, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors, wrote a piece about how Pence could be a candidate for a contract extension. Read that right HERE. He suggested that Pence get a deal north of $14 million a year over seven years. I have a feeling that Victorino gets a deal similar to what he got three years ago, which was a 3-year, $22 million deal. With those two in mind, the Phillies would add $21 million to their payroll, which is now over $118 million in guarantees and covers 12 players with 13 spots open. Philly has also increased payroll every year since 2007, and was over $165 million in 2011, while their 2012 payroll should reach $175 million, according to Todd Zolecki (Read HERE).

Instead of dragging this story on and on, because I'm sure you're tired of me talking about the Phillies, I'll just say it's basically a coin flip if they're able to sign Hamels, who, like I stated, deserves ace money.
Tyler Kelpner also wrote a story suggesting the Yankees may wait until next winter to make a splash anyways. Read that story HERE. He also suggested Matt Cain, someone who I am not fond about joining the Yankees on a big contract one bit, but then again, that's a post for another day. Who knows, maybe the prices for Garza and Jackson come down to respectable levels and the Yankees scoop one of them up. But gut feeling tells me we're going to have a rotation of Sabathia, Nova, Hughes, Garcia, and Burnett come April. I mean, it could be worse. Don't believe me? Head over to Citi Field this spring. See what I mean?



--Jesse Schindler, BYB Staff Writer



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