Friday, December 23, 2011

WHY CASHMAN HAS A LONG TERM PLAN

As Yankee fans, we love it when our team makes a big splash in the free agent or trade market, but thus far this winter, Cashman and Co. have held back. They had a chance at CJ Wilson. They declined. They had a chance at Mark Buehrle. They declined. They had a shot at Yu Darvish, but they reportedly put in a "modest bid" while the Texas Rangers won the bidding (read HERE). Finally, they have a great chance to acquire either Gio Gonzalez or John Danks, but the asking prices are just too high. So Danks signed an extension with the White Sox and Gio got traded to the Nationals.

It's apparent that the Yankees need starting pitching, but based on what Cashman has done thus far--or in this case... what he hasn't done--he has to have a long term plan set, right?

He very well might. You see, Joel Sherman wrote a very good piece, in which he explains the supposed salary cap plans by the Yankees, the other week. Read it right HERE. Supposedly, the Yankees are determined to lower their payroll to $189 million by the 2014 season, mostly because of the major benefits that the new CBA will provide if they're under the cap by then. To make a long story short, the Yankees would get a nice boatload of money if they're under the new luxury tax mark by 2014, and would get even more money if they stay under that ceiling for successive years.

With the number of big contracts the Yankees are tied to, it may look like that they won't acquire a high priced name. Let's quickly take a look at the guaranteed dollars on the 2014 payroll... (Courtesy of Cots Baseball contracts.) Those four players total $80.125 million in guaranteed dollars, thus giving the Yankees a $108.875 million cushion to play with. Also, remember that Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson are free agents following the 2013 season, and they'll be 31 and 33 years old, respectively. We all know both of those guys are in their peak years, and if they keep it up they'll likely see paychecks with the average annual value at $20 million or more.With that said, their payroll would be up to at least $120 million with 19 open spots left on the team and only $69 million to play with if/when both Cano and Granderson sign big deals. Also, guys like Nick Swisher and Russell Martin don't have contracts for 2014, while Brett Gardner, David Robertson, Francisco Cervelli, Ivan Nova, and Eduardo Nunez will still be in their arbitration years.

Of course this could easily be yet another smokescreen by Cashman and Co. in order to get a big name starting pitcher in next year's free agent pool. There are a lot of big names and other quality free agent starters that hit the open market which include but aren't limited to...Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Matt Cain, Dan Haren (club option), John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Anibal Sanchez, Ervin Santana, James Shields (club option), Shaun Marcum, Francisco Liriano, Ryan Dempster, and Jeremy Guthrie. It's unlikely that all of those guys hit the open market, but I'm sure a number of them will. Personally, I hope Cole Hamels hits free agency. He'd be a huge sign, but that's for another post.

Look, 2014 is a long ways away in terms of player movement and such. Anything can happen. It may be wise to expect the unexpected, but if Cashman and Co. are telling the truth, don't expect too many big name signings, especially in the starting rotation. Expect to count on guys like Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Adam Warren and company to step in and eat a lot of innings. Remember, I wrote WHY THE 'YANKEES CAN'T DEVELOP HOMEGROWN TALENT' ARGUMENT IS BOGUS. It soon may be that time where those guys down on the farm get their shot to shine. We'll have to wait and see.




--Jesse Schindler, BYB Staff Writer




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