WHY BURNETT'S STUFF IS ON THE DECLINE

(Photo: Corey Sipkin/NY Daily News)
It's pretty clear to us fans that the last year and two thirds A.J Burnett's stuff has really fallen off. Look at last year. He went 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA. This season he's 8-9 with a rising ERA at 4.60. His ERA has gone up after each passing start for over a month now. On July 4th his ERA going into his start against the Cleveland Indians was a solid 4.05. But since then it's gone up to 4.12, 4.15, 4.19, 4.21, 4.23, 4.54, and finally 4.60. He's yet to get a win in that span, and his ERA is an even 6.00 in that stretch. He's also yet to register a quality start (at least six innings pitched, and three earned runs or less) in that span as well.

But it's not just the lack of wins, and high ERA that tell the story. Burnett struck out 145 batters in 186.2 innings last season. That's only good for a 6.99 strikeouts per nine innings rate. That was his lowest K/9 rate since 2001 when he was 24 years old pitching in his first full season, third season overall. He had a 6.6 K/9 rate that year. This season he's struck out 129 batters in 148.2 innings, good for a 7.8 K/9 rate. And except for last year's 6.6 rate, that 7.8 rate is his lowest since that aforementioned 2001 season.And it's not just the strikeouts, or lack thereof that tell the story. It's the abundant amount of home runs he's given up the last few years. In 2009 and 2010 he gave up 25 home runs in 33 starts, both career highs. This season he's given up 22 long balls in just 23 starts. He's on pace to shatter his personal high in homers allowed in a season. You can blame the fact he pitched in the homer friendly Yankee Stadium the previous two seasons. But this year it's all on him. He can't continue to give up home runs like that and expect to win games.

Another piece of evidence that suggests that Burnett's stuff has diminished is his fastball velocity. His average fastball velocity is 92.6 mph. Not bad, but it has declined. His heater was at 93.2 average mph last year, and the previous two years he was at 94.2 and 94.3 mph respectively before being at 95.1 mph in 2007, with his career average fastball velocity at 94.3 mph. It's a downward trend that we the fans and Burnett aren't enjoying. In fact, A.J Burnett knows that his fastball velocity has dropped a bit because he's thrown his fastball just 57.4% of the time. That is by far a career low. In 2010 and 2009 he used his fastball 69% and 65.9%, respectively. In fact, his previous career low with his usage of his fastball was 63.6% in 2005. His career percentage of fastballs thrown checks in at 66.2%.With this in mind, Burnett has obviously thrown his curveball and change up more. This season Burnett has used his curveball 32.2% of the time, a career high and his highest since 2009 when he used his hook 31% of the time. For his career Burnett has used his curve 27.5% of the time. And remember, during Spring Training for the third year in a row AJ emphasized that he would use his change-up more. Well, he finally is a man of his word. He's used his change-up a career high 10.4% this season, versus 3.5% and 3.1% the two years prior. In his career, Burnett has used his change just 5.8% of the time. You can read all of AJ's charts and graphs HERE.

We've always known that Burnett may be more of a thrower than a pitcher. He loved to use his 95 mph fastball to blow away hitters, and make hitters look silly with his nasty curveball. But folks, for the better or the worst, Burnett is becoming more of a pitcher. We tend to forget he's 34 years old. He's most definitely in the back half of his career, and with two more long years at $16.5 million per, it may not be a fun ride for us Yankee fans or Burnett.


--Jesse Schindler, BYB Staff Writer




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