THE YANKEES $1 MILLION GUESS

The Yankees are apparently placing another bet on the future.

And when I say future, I mean way into the future.

The Yankees have reportedly reached a pre-agreement with 15-year-old Dominican outfielder Wilson Gómez for a $1 million signing bonus. Gómez, represented by Wilin Rosario, is from Monte Plata, Dominican Republic, and is part of the 2028 international class.

Fifteen.

Years.

Old.

What are we doing here? Look, maybe Gómez turns into a superstar. I hope he does. Apparently, he runs a 6.5-second 60-yard dash, has power and "has hit at every level."

Great. But what exactly is "every level" when you're 15? Little League? Travel ball? Sophomore gym class? I'm kidding, but you understand my point.

This is what drives me crazy about evaluating baseball players this young. You're essentially looking at a kid and trying to predict what his body, swing, approach, competition level and baseball instincts are going to look like years from now.

That's not player evaluation. That's a lottery ticket with a scouting report attached. Empire Sports Media actually put the situation into perspective pretty well:

"This report gives fans a name to keep in the back of their minds, nothing more. Gómez will have to turn his current athletic profile into a much more complete game before he gets near affiliated baseball.

But the Yankees clearly see enough to make a seven-figure commitment this early. The 2028 class is still a long way out, and this is a reported pre-agreement rather than a completed signing, but the club may have found one of its first major investments in that group."

Exactly. Nothing more. That's the part Yankee fans need to remember. Maybe Wilson Gómez becomes the next great Yankee outfielder. Maybe the scouts absolutely nailed this one. Maybe in six or seven years we're laughing about how brilliant this $1 million investment was.

I genuinely hope so. But he's 15 years old. There are so many question marks here you could fill Yankee Stadium with them. Will he keep developing? Will the power translate? Will he hit better pitching? Will his body change? Will the speed remain? Will he adjust mentally? Will he even become the player the Yankees currently project him to become?

Who knows?

And that's my problem with getting excited about these kinds of Yankee "investments." We've heard about tools. We've heard about upside. We've heard about projections. We've heard about kids who are supposedly years ahead of everybody else.

Then reality shows up. So welcome to the Yankee organization, Wilson Gómez. I hope you're terrific. I hope the Yankees found something special. But forgive me if I'm not ordering the jersey yet.

A million bucks on a 15-year-old isn't a plan. It's a bet.

Let's just hope this time the Yankees guessed right.