Quality Starts
|
Non-Quality Starts
|
|||||
Year
|
Pct
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
Pct
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
2012
|
67.9%
|
13 - 3
|
2.40
|
32.1%
|
2 - 3
|
5.77
|
2013
|
57.1%
|
10 - 4
|
2.64
|
42.9%
|
4 - 9
|
7.39
|
2014
|
25.0%
|
2 - 0
|
2.08
|
75.0%
|
1 - 4
|
6.55
|
I think it is pretty interesting. Two observations stand out to me. As the old saying goes, I have good news and I have bad news. First, the good news. When C.C. is on, he is on. This is very encouraging. It shows that he still has the wherewithal to get the job done and win some games. He is still averaging 6 strikeouts per game. Besides, this is still early in the season. C.C. heats up every year as the season goes on. Here are the percentages of Quality Starts, broken down by month, over the same 3 seasons:
2012-2014
|
Quality Starts
|
Games
|
Pct
|
Apr-Jun
|
19
|
40
|
47.5%
|
Jul-Aug
|
11
|
18
|
61.1%
|
Sep-Oct
|
7
|
10
|
70.0%
|
If the trend continues, C.C. should be improving dramatically. However, as I said earlier, there is bad news in the stats. You may have noticed the trend on the percentage of Quality Starts over the last 3 years shown above. It is dropping dramatically. This is a warning sign.
As pitchers get older, you see the velocity of pitches drop. You see them start to lose their endurance, to have a shorter pitch count. That is certainly the case with Sabathia. His days of throwing in the mid-90’s are over. His endurance also is showing signs of diminishing. This season, through his first 45 pitches, opponents’ batting average is .271. After the 45th pitch, that stat jumps almost 100 points to .360. Clearly, he is not the same pitcher later in the game.
Every pitcher that gets to that age, especially the great ones, learns that adjustments are necessary. When the maximum pitching velocity drops, they learn that they need to reduce the velocity of all their pitches, to maintain variance and keep hitters guessing. They need to focus more on movement and location. They make changes to the conditioning program to build up endurance, to be able to get to the 100th pitch. The great ones are able to make those adjustments. CC needs to learn to make them too. The stats show that he still has the stuff – it is just not coming through as consistently as it once did. Once he makes those adjustments, we are pretty confident that we will better results. Then the boo birds claiming that he is finished will be silenced and we can get back to enjoying some good Yankee baseball.
--Ike Dimitriadis, BYB Writer
Twitter: @KingAgamemnon
My blog is: Shots from Murderer's Row
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