Monday, January 16, 2012

WHY A FRANKENSTEIN DH MAKES SENSE

While the Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda trade no doubt disappointed the better half of the Yankees fanbase, I for one am ecstatic. Sure, I loved Montero as much as the next guy, if not more, and I still think he's going to be a stud. However, Pineda's ceiling is no lower than Montero's. In fact, seeing as he doesn't have an obvious shortcoming like Jesus (defense), one could certainly argue that Pineda is going to be the better player. 22 year olds who flirt with triple digits, throw a filthy breaking ball, and have a change-up (which was praised in the minors, we'll see if he features it more prominently than last year) are a very rare commodity. Pineda fills the formerly present pitching void and then some.
However, it's left us with an obvious hole in the team: the DH. One could certainly argue that rotating Jeter, ARod, and Andruw Jones through it while filling in the hole with Eduardo Nuñez would produce solid results, but why are we trying for adequate? We just gave up a potential middle of the order bat, we should be trying to make up for that. Rather than just reallocating what we already have to a new position and giving Nuñez more chances to make errors, I believe we need to bring someone in who will produce similar results to what we could've expected out of Montero.

So how do we do this without breaking the bank for Prince Fielder you ask? Simple: Carlos Peña.

Peña is more than likely to accept a 1 or 2 year deal at a relatively low price. He offers adequate defense as a backup first baseman and would serve as our primary DH.
But Carlos Peña alone isn't going to provide results like Montero would've is it? No, he won't but platoon him with the already present Andruw Jones and we'll not only have filled in for Montero's absence, but we'll have created one of the most effective DHs in baseball.

Andruw Jones' OPS against lefties in 2011 was .923, while Peña's OPS against righties was .892. Neither were particularly adept at hitting same side batters, and that wouldn't have to change in a platoon. Assuming 70% of the time the opposing pitcher is right handed, 30% of the time the opposing pitcher is left handed, and both players repeated their 2011 performance, using the equation .892(0.7) + .923(0.3), the expected OPS out of our Jones/Peña Franken-DH comes out to .903.

Bill James' predictions for Montero in 2012 were by far the most optimistic, and even those foresaw an OPS of .856. Obviously baseball is played on a field, not on paper, so comparing predictions may ultimately add up to nothing, but if both of these estimates were to end up accurate, the Peña/Jones combo would actually end up being more productive than Montero, and not insignificantly so. With the ever-enticing short porch and Peña's pull-or-strikeout swing, I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see his numbers against righties shoot up. Jones went through a pitiful first half before he made some adjustments over the All-Star break and came back mashing, so improvement isn't out of the question for him either.If this were the plan, it would also keep Joe from stupidly pulling Brett Gardner against lefties. While Gardner may not be a very good hitter against lefties, he still has a career .345 OBP against them, and regardless of offensive production his stellar defense still makes him a valuable player at all times.

It may not be "the Yankee way" to play moneyball and platoon their way to victory, but quite frankly, it works. Just ask Joe Maddon.

By the way, check out the latest from the Bronx Goblin HERE.



--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer



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