HOW THE YANKEES STACK UP: STARTING ROTATION

We've examined the following here at BYB on how the Yankees will stack up in 2013: Catcher, 1st base, 2nd base, Shortstop, 3rd base, Left field, Centerfield and Right field.  Now, we look at the Starting Rotation...

Starting Rotation

The New York Yankees starters ranked sixth in the American League last season with a 4.04 ERA.  Their 71 wins was second to the Texas Rangers  (72) and their total innings pitched (1001.1) was behind only the Mariners (1002.2).

Overall one could say it was a fairly successful campaign for the starting five, but a closer look reveals a disturbing issue that needs to be addressed in 2013. 

Namely, the starters need to limit the number of long balls they allow.  In 2012 they were the worst in Major League Baseball yielding 143 round-trippers.   They were led by Phil Hughes (35 HR allowed) and Ivan Nova (28), and four of the five starters gave up 20 or more HR.  Even part-time starter Freddy Garcia teed up 18 wall-clearing shots for opposing batters.  In the post-season things weren’t much better as opponents clubbed 6 HR off starting pitchers in 9 games.

Where Manager Joe Girardi was depending upon his offense to provide game-turning long balls, instead his starters were handing them out to opponents like candy at a parade.

There is hope.

Ace CC Sabathia had what many considered to be an “off” year.  Even so, he won 15 games and posted a very respectable 3.38 ERA.  In his three previous seasons as a Yankee, Sabathia averaged 19 wins and a 3.18 ERA - and he had never allowed more than 20 HRs in a season (he gave up 22 in 2012).  Fans should expect a return to form for the southpaw that anchors the rotation.

Hiroki Kuroda was arguably the Yankees best pitcher in 2012.  He led the team in starts, innings pitched and tied for the most wins with Phil Hughes (16).  In July and August of last season, when the team suffered injuries to both Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, Kuroda had a 2.97 ERA and a microscopic 0.95 WHIP over 11 starts.  When the team needed someone to depend on, Hiroki stepped up.  At 38 years old the question will be whether he can maintain the level of play he established in 2012.  Given his calm demeanor, the veteran pitcher should turn in another solid year for our “Bombers”.

Andy Pettitte will have a full off season of preparation for the coming year and that should mean continued success for our beloved left hander.  Last season he led the rotation with a stellar 2.87 ERA but missed significant time (more than 2 months) with an ankle fracture the result of a line drive in a game against the Cleveland Indians.  At 40 years old his days with the Yankees certainly are numbered but given what he showed last season in leading the starters in WHIP (1.14) and holding opponents to a .232 batting average, one has to believe there is still something in the tank.

In spite of the home runs he allowed, Phil Hughes had a bounce-back year in 2012.  Over 191-plus innings pitched he threw to a 4.19 ERA and rediscovered the fastball many thought he had lost.  The 26-year old (yes, that’s right, he’s still only 26) was signed to a one year $7.15 million contract and will have plenty of incentive to raise the level of his game while reducing the number of home runs he allows.  He is solidly entrenched as the Yankees fourth starter.

The fifth spot in the rotation will be up for grabs during spring training.  The two primary competitors for the job are a pair of 26-year olds – Ivan Nova and David Phelps.

If last season was used to choose between them, Phelps would already have been named to the role.  During the year he held a 3.34 ERA and a respectable 1.19 WHIP (as a starter he was 2 – 2 with a 3.77 ERA).  In 99 1/3 innings, he struck out 96 and walked 38.  When the fifth spot was in turmoil last season, Phelps settled into the role and gave it stability.

Two seasons ago Ivan Nova looked like the right handed version of CC Sabathia.  As a 24-year old he went 16 – 4 with a 3.70 ERA.  Going into 2012, his spot in the rotation was more certain than that of Phil Hughes.

Oh what a difference a year makes.  Last year was a nightmare for the young hurler as he went 12 – 8 with a 5.02 ERA and gave up 194 hits, 56 walks and 28 home runs in a little over 170 innings pitched.  Many called for his demotion to the minor leagues and he wasn’t called upon at all in the post season. 

Nova enters 2013 with a renewed determination to reclaim a spot in the rotation and is one of a small group of players already working out at the Yankees minor league complex in Tampa.  If he can return to his 2011 form, fans can once again look forward to seeing him take the mound every fifth day in the Bronx.

Here’s what the rest of the AL East will offer in the form of rotations:

Toronto Blue Jays: On paper the starting five of RA Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero certainly looks impressive.  Some things to keep in mind:  How will Dickey handle facing American League lineups every time he steps on the mound (the Yankees were quite successful in the game they faced him)?  Will Josh Johnson manage to stay healthy all season – he’s only pitched more than 200 innings once in his career.  33-year old Mark Buehrle has been the closest thing to a punching bag for the Yankees that they can get.  In his career he is 1 – 5 with a 6.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and has allowed 10 HR verses New York.  Morrow and Romero are both excellent young pitchers to bring up the back end.

Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles starters ranked ninth in the AL last season with a 4.42 ERA and allowed the third most home runs (136).  This is a young rotation whose “senior” man is 31-year old Jason Hammel.  He is followed by 28-year old Wei-Yin Chen, 25-year old Chris Tillman, 29-year old Miguel Gonzalez, and 26-year old Brian Matusz.  They combined to go 5 – 4 with a 4.66 ERA against the Yankees (Gonzalez alone was 2 – 0 with a 2.63 ERA).  It is a rotation on the upswing and should keep Baltimore in contention for years to come.

Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays will once again field a strong rotation.  2012 Cy Young award winner David Price continues to only get better, and he is followed by Jeremy Hellickson (10 wins, 3.10 ERA), Matt Moore (11 wins, 3.81 ERA), Alex Cobb (11 wins, 4.03 ERA), and Jeff Niemann (3.08 ERA in 8 starts last year).  They are young (average age is 26.8) and last season led the American League in ERA (3.34) and strikeouts (900).  Frankly, this rotation is the one the rest of the division must keep up with.

Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox rotation is a mixed bag of talent, and it is anyone’s guess as to how it all will turn out.  Jon Lester heads up the starting five and comes off a disappointing 2012 season in which he was 8 – 14 with a career-high 4.82 ERA.  In 2010 Clay Buchholz was 17 – 7 with a 2.33 ERA.  He is 17 – 11 with a 4.02 ERA in the two years since.  26-year old southpaw Felix Doubront shows great promise (11 wins in 2012).  35-year old chicken and beer loving, meatball serving John Lackey will return to the rotation for the first time since 2011 and fans shouldn’t expect much but plenty of souvenirs beyond the outfield wall when he takes the mound.  36-year old Ryan Dempster was signed in the off season by the Red Sox and could prove to be a solid part of the rotation if he can handle the switch to the American League (after an entire career spent in the NL).

Here’s how we see the rotations of the AL East stacking up:

1. Tampa Bay: Young and already successful.  They are scary-good.
2. Baltimore: I just have a feeling that this team is on the rise. 
3. New York: A Sabathia bounce-back, healthy Pettitte for a full season, and the competition for the fifth spot will make this an under-the-radar strength for the Yankees.
4. Toronto: A very high-risk, high –reward situation for the Blue Jays.  If all pitch to what their “book value” is, this team will be in the post season.  This team has an “all or nothing” feel to it.
5. Boston: Lester should bounce back, Buchholtz is anyone’s guess, Doubront will improve, Lackey is a waste of money and Dempster could be a hidden gem.  I still see them fifth.

What do you think?  Let us know!


 
--Steve Skinner, BYB Guest Writer
Twitter: @oswegos1

 

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ARE THE YANKEES THE UNDERDOG?

 

With the changes made to the teams in the AL East, the Yankees will have to work on a few things to keep up. Just look at the Blue Jays, for example. They have made a lot of changes since last year and they have a stronger team.  In the last few days, the Jays have signed RA Dickey. Dickey is a knuckleballer that went 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA, and was the NL 2012 Cy Young winner. Add to that Mark Buehrle, Melky Cabrera, and Jose Reyes, and you have a powerful looking team.

In fact, most sports analysts are calling the Blue Jays the team to beat. Of course, that is also what they said about the Red Sox last year and we all know how that turned out. It won’t be an easy win when we face them or any of our AL East rivals. It never is. Our division is nicknamed the AL Beast for a reason. It is arguably the toughest division in the league.

The Yankees will have to work on not relying on the homer. Yes, home runs are great. But home runs alone do not win games. Look at Curtis Granderson... great home run hitter who placed second on the strike out list in 2012. Not exactly something to be proud of. Sure, we led the league in homers, but many of them were solo shots. We have to start getting runners on.

Of course that is not enough. The Yankees have struggled with leaving runners stranded. We need to start playing small ball. Not every at bat needs to be a moon shot. Get on, move guys over, bring guys home, and score runs. Last season, many games had our pitchers doing well and our hitters just not showing up for the party. Our pitchers need the run support. You can’t score runs by leaving guys stranded.

I’m looking at Kevin Long here. I like the guy well enough, but seriously, when every hitter on our team is having a problem, something has to be done. In 2012, it seemed like every hitter on the team was slumping for more than half of the season. It was cringe worthy. This problem needs to be resolved.

The division will be tough to win, but not impossible. The critics have counted the Yankees out many times only to be proved wrong. Our hitting is the biggest issue we have to face. If we can solve that issue, we should be solid.

--Erica Morales, BYB Writer
Twitter: @e_morales1804



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MARLINS FAILURE: A TAKE FROM A PASSIONATE FAN

The Marlins entered the 2011 off season with a new stadium and high hopes.  They began paying top dollar for aging pieces when the team was quite frankly an unknown. The biggest problem was adding to a base
that was at best unstable. Hanley Ramirez was considered the club's foundation, yet he had not shown any consistent greatness since his career year of 2009.

 Josh Johnson was the ace, but was coming off a season pitching 60 innings. Giancarlo Stanton was coming off his first full major league season and had shown a tendency towards injury with specific questions arising regarding the health of his knees. These were the franchises stalwarts, the pieces that had to make everything go if the franchise was to contend. In an effort to draw a crowd to their new publicly funded stadium, the Marlins went out and behaved as if they were two or three pieces away from the playoffs as opposed to a team that finished 2011 ten games under .500.   In a spending spree similar to the one that built the 1997 Marlins, the franchise went out and spent on Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell.  These were not impact signings like those made by the '97 version of this franchise. Here is a look at the 2011 WAR (wins above replacement for each of those players):

Reyes: 2011- WAR- 4.7- Age- 28

Buehrle: 2011- WAR- 3.5- Age- 32

Bell: 2011- WAR .8- Age- 33

(In Photo: Heath Bell)

The signings had issues. The Marlins clearly overpaid for an aging reliever (Bell) in an effort to convince the Miami market that they would be big spenders. Bell at his highest point was worth 3 wins above replacement but his most recent season prior to the contract he had been worth less than a win above replacement. The Marlins spent $9 million a season on a player worth less than one win above replacement level. The reason for this type of spending was either front office idiocy or an effort to acquire "names" to draw fans to their new stadium and prove to the fans that this group would spend. Further, the Reyes and Buehrle signings cannot said to be flat out failures but rather miscalculations of both players' impact on drawing fans and their ability to carry a team if the "stars" did not shine. Reyes regressed from a career campaign in 2011 but was still worth 2.2 WAR and Buehrle was worth almost the exact same WAR as the previous season. The real issue here is that the 2011 off season probably should not have happened. It was a smoke and mirrors game to attract fans when the Marlins had no idea whether the product on the field could
compete.

Essentially, the Marlins signed $191 million dollars of contracts and added potentially 9 wins above replacement level.  This would make them an eighty-one (81) win ball club. If everything went positively
with Hanley, Stanton and Johnson the reality was that this team was probably winning 86-87 games given the pieces they added as they expected increased production from all three players (as well as long time prospect Logan Morrison).  The problem was spending before seeing certainty out of these players.  People will argue that the Marlins had to spend.  They had to show their fans that they were in it, and I agree that the Marlins had to spend money.  I disagree on when.  The rush to spend money on these "stars" left a large tab with little results.   Hanley, an already volatile personality with both question marks surrounding production and attitude, was made to switch positions and seemed less interested in growing as a player than growing as a clubhouse cancer.  Johnson looked good but fought consistency issues throughout his return.  Stanton battled knee injuries, but showed potential to be a top power hitter in the game hitting 37 home runs in limited time.  Had the ball club made smaller moves, it would have been criticized, but it would not have been met with the disdain it currently faces.  Patience would have allowed the club to see how its "core" grew in the new ballpark without committing funds and more importantly fan support to expensive complimentary
pieces.

By July, it was clear that Ramirez wanted out and was unwilling or unable to grow as a player in the Marlins system.  At the very least, he looks highly unlikely to ever regain the MVP type offensive production he generated in 2009. It was also clear that Johnson, while a workhorse, was not the ace he had been in 2009 or 2010.  His strike outs were down and his allowed base runners were up (this may very well regress next season).  More importantly, Johnson is entering a contract year where he will assuredly be seeking far more that the 13 million per season his Marlins contract called for.  While Johnson is still a very nice pitcher, it is unwise for a small market club, even one with a new ballpark, to pay 17+ million for a 29 year old pitcher with an aggressive injury history and decreasing numbers.  Had the Marlins tempered their spending until they knew these things, it would have changed the viewpoint of the entire baseball world today. As with all things, timing is everything.

The Marlins realized too late that their plan was flawed.  They realized too late that Hanley was not their franchise player.  They realized too late that these pieces would not win.  By the time they had realized it, the contracts had been signed, but even more detrimental, the public perception of the team had gelled.  This Marlins team would be players in the free agent market.  This Marlin team would add to its core, not gut its team to rebuild for the future. Regardless of what was best for the baseball team, the perception was now set especially after the city had so lavishly rewarded ownership with an essentially free ballpark.  Now the Marlins had two choices:

1: The Mets strategy: Refuse to believe that your past transactions were mistakes and continue to pour good money after bad into more free agents in order to attempt to compete

or

2: Blow it up and build again:  The Marlins to the detriment of their public persona, to the shame of the organization and disgust of their fans choose the second option.  Was this the wrong move? Yes and No.  From the baseball prospective, this Marlins team lost three more games than the 2011 version and seemed at best disjointed, at worst an absolute wreck.  From the baseball prospective, paying top dollar for a losing ball club does not make a great business or baseball model.  For public relations and perception, this was a failure of epic proportions.

The team had a history of selling its players for more than a decade, and most recently, the Marlins sold a home-grown, future Hall of Famer, Miguel Cabrera for what amounted to no value for the Marlins major league club.

These were jaded fans before their tax dollars paid for a new ballpark.  These were people who needed something to believe in from their baseball organization.  They saw the Reyes, Buehrle and Bell signings (as misguided as those moves may have been) as signs of a new beginning for the team and the city. A reward given by the Marlins for the gift of the new stadium. By dismantling this team in much the same way the previous incarnations of the team had been dismantled, the Marlins destroyed that new beginning and any budding trust that had blossomed with it.  The fans and city feel like suckers made fools of by rich men. Was it the right baseball move? In the end, I think it very well may be.  Was it the right baseball move for this team in this city at this moment? There could not be a more resounding no.

--Nick Rosseletti, Miami Resident & die-hard baseball fan
Twitter: @NRoss56




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REMEMBER JUSTIN CHRISTIAN? YEAH, HE'S STILL PLAYING

Justin Christian was a New York Yankees alittle while ago.  He played in 24 games for the Yankees in 2008.  He then played for San Francisco Giants in 2011 and 2012. 

Now he and the St. Louis Cardinals have come to a"verbal" agreement on a minor league deal and an invite to Spring Training.   This comes from Fox Sports, read HERE.  Not sure what "verbal" agreements get you these days.  Christian should have talked to Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle about "verbal" agreements.  Don't know what I'm talking about? Read THIS MARLINS STORY JUST GOT WORSE.

(In Photo: Justin Christian)
So why am I telling you about Justin Christian? Why would I possibly care? Why should you care? Well, we're BYB... once you wear the pinstripes, we try and keep track of you, even after the days of glory in the Bronx.

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THIS MARLINS STORY JUST GOT WORSE

Not only does it appear that the Marlins have no regard for the city of Miami and the fans, they have no regard for the Marlins themselves. Wait until you read this, brought to you originally by Ken Rosenthal who's been all over this story. According to Rosenthal HERE:

"Shortstop Jose Reyes and left-hander Mark Buehrle, two of the five Marlins headed to Toronto in a pending blockbuster, are upset that the team broke verbal promises to them regarding trades, according to major-league sources.

The Marlins do not award no-trade clauses, but club officials, while recruiting Reyes and Buerhle as free agents last offseason, assured both players that they would not be moved, sources said..."

How disgraceful is this Jeffrey Loria, and team president David Samson?  So clearly to them,  these players are property. No regard to loyalty at all. They are only out for themselves. Don't forget, Buehrle was going to sign with the Nationals for 3 years, but when the Marlins offered him 4 years, that "stability" package that players like when they're at the end of their careers, he switched to Miami.  When it came to Reyes, he went for 6 years.  Now, they may being going to Toronto if Bud Selig approves it.  Bottom line, he shouldn't and he needs to have to balls to reject this trade.  If not, dare I say, not only do Loria and Samson need to walk, so would Selig. This is now borderline corruption.

Players as property and disregard for respect of players who give their talents to a team to win a championship. Have we gone back in time?  My God.  Curt Flood.... where are you when we need you?

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SWINDLED IN MIAMI: A YANKEE FAN'S TAKE

Even though I am a third generation Yankee fan, I am a Miami native, and I supported, as a Miami-Dade taxpayer, building the stadium Loria desired.  Sadly, I grew up a 'Cane, and when they tore the Orange Bowl down, Little Havana remained empty, so it was logical to try to pump some money and support back into the community.

Jeffrey Loria promised to raise the payroll for the Miami Marlins, which he did last off season, and within less than a year, they’ve already started to dismantle. It started with sending Hanley Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers in what seemed like an overnight deal, read HERE. 

Ramirez was arguably the Marlins best player. Now, they’ve taken more away sending Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson to the Toronto Blue Jays.  They are NOT going to go out and spending a bunch of money anymore.  This is a fire sale and Ricky Nolasco and Giancarlo Stanton are next.

(In Photo: Jeffrey Loria)

For the good of the game, Major League Baseball should intervene, not so much in this trade, but in terms of the community and what Loria has done to the brand name of baseball in South Florida, overall. Loria is a real scoundrel to me and probably to many, even since his Expos days, but this one, dismantling the Miami Marlins takes the cake in terms of his depravity.

From our Yankees perspective, the AL East just got a lot tougher, if that was possible.

--Carlos Echevarria, Yankee fan & 
creator of America Trek



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BLUE JAYS GET MOTHERLOAD IN TRADE WITH MARLINS

It appears the the Toronto Blue Jays and Miami Marlins have made a trade that is being reported to be EPIC.

The names involved are Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Emilio Bonifacio and John Buck. According to Jon Morosi and Ken Rosenthal, the Marlins "will receive a package that includes shortstops Yunel Escobar and Adeiny Hechavarria, major-league right-hander Henderson Alvarez, minor-league left-hander Justin Nicolino, center fielder Jacob Marisnick, catcher Jeff Mathis and minor league right-hander Anthony DeSclafani." They also reported that "One source said starter Ricky Nolasco could be the next Marlins player dealt." If I'm the Yankees, I'm giving the Marlins a call on Nolasco.  Anyway, you can read all about it HERE.

Huge trade and I'm sure there will be plenty of reaction tomorrow, but we wanted to fill you in tonight.  The Blue Jays have some immediate help and I believe will be more effective in the American League eastern Division with guys like Reyes and Johnson.  It's got to be disappointing to the Marlins fans who had high hopes last season, only to now be slowly picked apart.  What a disaster down there.  

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AROUND THE MAJOR LEAGUES RIGHT NOW

Ozzie Guillen: The Miami Marlins are falling apart just as fast as they arrived.  Remember last year all the hype surrounding the new stadium and then the addition of Ozzie Gullen as manager? Then, they took away Mark Buehrle, a pitcher I really wanted in pinstripes.  And everyone else followed. But now, Heath Bell was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Marlins decided to fire Ozzie yesterday, read HERE.  Look, on paper the whole Miami rejuvenating thing felt great, but they need a lot more than Ozzie Guillen to attract fans, they need to actually win. Oh, and those uniforms are horrendous. Unless Tubbs and Crockett are owning that team, we need to move away from that look.  You know what would work for them and I am ashamed to even suggest it because I appreciate him always being a Yankee is Jorge Posada. You bring a smart baseball mind into Miami like Posada to manage and you attract a crowd and no doubt, you win, just saying.

Hunter Pence: It was the greatest slow motion video I have ever seen.  In Game 7 of the NLCS the other night, Hunter Pence hit the ball, the bat broke and the ball was hit 3 separate times and when it shot out to shortstop, it veered off into the outfield allowing 3 runs to score and allowing the Giants to pounce on the Cardinals and eventually win to move onto the World Series.  You have to see this video above, it’s wild.

David Ortiz: Looks like David Ortiz must have naked pictures of John Henry or something because the latest report HERE is the Red Sox just signed him to a 2 year deal.  I don’t get this one.  Has Ortiz really contributed to this team lately? Hey, we all know he’s a fan favorite and allegedly a really nice guys, cue the hug video:


But I have to tell you, I think the whole Big Papi thing is played out at this point, isn’t it? I mean, Bobby Valentine thinks so. In an interview on NBC Sports Network (HERE), Bobby said Ortiz "quit" on the Red Sox. He said Ortiz "came back after spending about six weeks on the disabled list and we thought it was only going to be a week. He got two hits the first two times up, drove in a couple runs; we were off to the races. Then he realized that this trade meant that we’re not going to run this race and we’re not even going to finish the race properly and he decided not to play anymore. I think at that time it was all downhill from there." Good old Bobby V, diarrhea of the mouth.

Carlton Fisk: It looks like Carlton Fisk was arrested on a DUI in Illinois. The report, HERE, says that he was driving in the middle of the road and when cops arrived, he was asleep at the wheel and there was a bottle of vodka in the car.  I don’t know the situation, but we hope everything is OK with Fisk. I hate hearing these types of stories.

If anymore MLB news is around, we'll have it here at Bleeding Yankee Blue!

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2012 BYB NATIONAL LEAGUE PREDICTIONS

In case you missed it, check out 2012 BYB AMERICAN LEAGUE PREDICTIONS. Here’s part two of our predictions, enjoy.

NL East:

(In Photo: Chase Utley)

1. Phillies: Best 1-2-3 rotation punch in baseball, need to tread water with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard out, Jonathan Papelbon slight upgrade over Ryan Madson. X-factor: Jimmy Rollins; needs to prove that he has enough in the tank and can stay healthy.

2. Nationals: Fantastic young rotation headlined by Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman needs to stay healthy for Washington to snag a wild card spot. X-factor: Jayson Werth; had a sub-par first year of mega contract, needs to step up big time.(In Photo: Jose Reyes)
3. Marlins: Health of Jose Reyes and Josh Johnson are vital, Giancarlo Stanton is one of the best young hitters in the game, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell additions are huge to pitching staff. X-Factor: Josh Johnson; if he’s healthy he can win a Cy Young, no doubt.

4. Braves: Can easily finish first in stacked NL East, tons of young pitching in rotation and high minors. X-factor: Jason Heyward, had nightmare year last year, needs to go back to 2010 form for Braves to make the playoffs

5. Mets: Offense better than most think, revamped bullpen, not much starting pitching. X-factor: Johan Santana. If he can turn back the clock to 2008 and pitch 120+ innings it’d be huge for this team that is assured to finish in last.

NL Central:

(In Photo: Sean Marshall)
1. Reds: Great 1-2 combo in rotation (Cueto and Latos) and 3-4 combo in lineup (Votto and Phillips), Madson injury won’t hurt too much with Sean Marshall closing out games. X-factor: Bronson Arroyo/Homer Bailey/Mike Leake. One of these guys needs to step up and pitch like a legit number 3 starter.

2. Brewers: Fielder departure will hurt, but Aramis Ramirez signing may help, Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke one of best 1-2 rotation combos in the game. X-factor: Corey Hart. Needs to stay healthy and help fill the void of Prince Fielder.

3. Cardinals: Albert Pujols, LaRussa, and Duncan departures critical, Chris Carpenter injury huge as well. X-factor: David Freese; Needs to stay healthy and continue to hit close to what he did in ’11 playoffs.(In Photo: Andrew McCutchen)
4. Pirates: Some good young talent in the lineup led by Andrew McCutchen, Joel Hanrahan elite closer, may have to wait one more year to break streak of consecutive losing seasons. X-Factor: Erik Bedard; would be a nice boost to the team if he can stay healthy for an entire season, could thrive in National League setting.

5. Cubs: The curse of the Billy goat and such will continue another year, Starlin Castro a young, exciting player that will eventually emerge into a star. X-factor: Geovany Soto; has followed every good season in career with a bad one, last year he OBP’d a career low .310 after .398 showing in ’10. Is a big year in the works?
(In Photo: Wandy Rodriguez)
6. Astros: By far the worst team in baseball and it’ll only get worse when they move to AL 2013. X-Factor: Wandy Rodriguez; Needs to pitch well enough to get traded to a contender in late July.

NL West:

1. Diamondbacks: Could be best team in NL with great young pitching and lineup, Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy are MVP and Cy Young candidates, respectively. X-Factor: Trevor Cahill; Needs to prove he can handle pitching in desert after pitching in spacious Oakland.(In Photo: Melky Cabrera)
2. Giants: Buster Posey and Brandon Belt have potential to be one of the better young offensive combos in the NL. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner are second best 1-2-3 rotation combo in the NL. X-factor: Melky Cabrera; Needs to repeat strong ’11 campaign and get on base in top of Giants order.

3. Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp both cornerstones of potential elite team in a few years, Dee Gordon is very young and exciting player, best of luck to Don Mattingly in second season of managing. X-Factor: Chad Billingsley; Needs to take next step and become legit number 2 starter behind Kershaw.
(In Photo: Carlos Gonzalez)
4. Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki is best shortstop in the game, acquired two nice pieces in Ubaldo trade to improve starting rotation in near future, Jamie Moyer comeback is great story. X-Factor: Carlos Gonzalez; Needs to stay healthy and return to 2010 form for Rockies to have a chance at the NL Central.

5. Padres: Fueled by pitching and not much offense, Yonder Alonso could be future star. X-Factor: Edinson Volquez; Needs to pitch somewhat near 2008 form. Maybe change of scenery and friendlier ballpark could do the trick.

Wild Cards: Nationals, Marlins
NLCS: Marlins over Phillies
MVP: Joey Votto
Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
Rookie: Yonder Alonso
Comeback player: Johan Santana
Manager of the year: Ozzie Guillen

World Series: Yankees over Marlins
World Series MVP: Curtis Granderson

There you have it, our NL and AL predictions. Feel free to sound off in the comments if you agree or disagree.




--Jesse Schindler, BYB Lead Staff Writer
Follow me on Twitter @SchindlerJesse

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