The Yankees won in dramatic fashion, in a winner-take-all
Game 5 of the ALDS, beating the Orioles with a superb complete game performance by CC
Sabathia. It was a juggling act by manager Joe Girardi, who tipped his hand as
far as which players he felt were able to get him to victory, and which players
were not. It doesn't get any easier with Detroit in the ALCS.
I thought I’d take a look at the first couple of games, as
it will be critically important for the Yankees to come out of the gate strong.
The biggest issue the Yankees have to face is the starting rotation. None of
their top 4 starters will be available for Game 2. Starting Kuroda on 3 days
rest is a dicey proposition. I think the obvious choice will be
David Phelps.
The good news is that he’s faced Detroit three times this season in relief
appearances and did not allow a run. In his last one, he kept
Miguel Cabrera,
Prince Fielder, and
Austin Jackson from scoring to preserve a one-run lead
before handing the ball over to Rafael Soriano. That’s the good news. The bad
news is that the rest of his time against the Tigers was mop up work in affairs
where the Tigers had a 5-run lead. So he’s still a question mark, but he may be
the best option on a short leash with
Derek Lowe waiting in the wings. The rest
of the series will have
Hiroki Kuroda, Sabathia, and
Phil Hughes pitching one game each
through the first six. If it goes seven games, either Kuroda or Sabathia will
have to start on three days’ rest. The point – it would be really great to win
this in 6!
The first game, and probably Game 5, has the brightest
outlook. They will feature Andy Pettitte
for the Yankees.
Andy Pettitte has pitched many pressure games, and this one should
be no different. He is still looking for his 20
th career postseason
victory, and he’ll be bringing his best stuff Saturday night. He’s had 4 starts
since coming off the DL in September. He looked brilliant in his first two
starts, keeping opponents scoreless. His last two starts have not been as
stellar – allowing three runs in each. Those last two starts saw Pettitte
struggle to keep batters off the bases, and he escaped several jams to avoid
even further damage. All this to say, with Detroit’s powerful lineup – 3
rd
in the majors in average, 6
th in OBP, and 7
th in SLG –
Pettitte will need his A-grade stuff to beat this team.
I didn't think it would be this bad, but the Yankees’
hitting looks terrible. Had it not been for the 9
th inning eruption
of Game 1, the Yankees would have failed to score more than 3 runs in a game
for the entire series. Yankee starters have had to allow 2 runs or fewer per
game to have a chance to win. What’s worse, they've pitched with a lead for
only four innings through the first four games.
CC Sabathia got the luxury of
another 4 innings with a lead in Game 5. That’s a tough line to walk. Here are
some more chilling stats. What has been the heart of the Yankees order –
Nick Swisher, Alex Rodriguez,
Curtis Granderson, and
Robinson Cano – have averaged
fewer than two hits and just over one RBI per game
combined! Except for
DerekJeter and
Mark Teixeira,
no everyday player
has hit above .220 for the series. When I watched Yankee hitters at the
plate, one thing seems very clear. They’re very anxious, and they’re swinging
wildly at pitches they have no hope of hitting. Pitching to them is relatively
easy –throw pitches with a little bit of movement out of the strike zone, and you’ll
get them out. The bottom line – hitting coach Kevin Long better figure out how
to turn this around quickly.
What do you do with a player who is supposed to strike fear
in the collective heart of opposing pitchers, yet can’t seem to catch up to a
90 mph fastball?? Pitchers are blowing it past him, and he has struck out in
half of his ALDS plate appearances. He continues to swing in broad strokes, as
if making contact with the ball would send it into the seats. I fear that at
the age of 37, his bat speed may have slowed down. He might want to try to
shorten his swing so that he can get some base hits, giving up on some long
balls. As I mentioned above, he’s not the only one whose production stinks. But
he’s the face of the problem right now, and the primary topic of most interview
questions. Whatever he and Long and Girardi decide to do, whether it’s to bat
him down in the order or remove him after a couple of turns at bat, or
something else, they had better come up with a plan and fast.
In closing, I think the Yankees will take this series too.
The bottom line is that we have better starting pitchers, and the Tigers have
similar issues with their rotation. The Yankees have been able to come back and
fight in late innings in several ALDS games. Combine that with home field
advantage, and I like our odds. Here’s to a great series!
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