WHY HUGHES SPOT IN THE ROTATION STEMS FROM HIS VELOCITY

Just as astronomers around the world study the stars in an attempt to learn why they do what they do, so the Yankees spent the 2011 trying to figure out what happened to Phil Hughes.

The 2010 campaign saw the emergence of a 24 year old Hughes on the New York Yankee staff as he posted an 18 – 8 mark with a respectable 4.19 ERA over 31 starts. In April of that season he carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Oakland A’s (it would be broken up by future-Yankee Eric Chavez). Through May of 2010, Phil was 6 – 1 with a 3.03 ERA and by the mid-way point he was selected an All-Star for the first time in his career. With a fastball that frequently would top out at 95 – 96 mph and an assortment of other pitches in his repertoire, a Yankee star had been born and his promise seemed endless.

As the 2011 season opened, Hughes was guaranteed a spot in the Yankee rotation. He reported to spring training and almost immediately concern ran through the Yankee ranks. He had lost his main weapon – the fastball. Where it had averaged 93 mph, suddenly it was averaging 91 mph and lacked the consistent control he had displayed in 2010. A look at his “heat maps” on Fangraphs reveals the marked difference in Hughes ability to consistently get the fastball over the plate from 2010 to 2011.

2010

2011

(Courtesy: Fangraphs)

Ultimately, the lack of velocity coupled with the lack of consistency led to a season that saw Phil Hughes spend time on the DL and appear in only 17 games – and posting a 5.79 ERA over 74 innings - as the Yankees desperately attempted to find the source of his problems.

This season Phil Hughes comes into camp with nothing guaranteed or promised. Yesterday he pitched 12/3 innings and allowed 2 runs on 4 hits. That does not cement him into the Yankees rotation and clearly it's a work in progress. The Yankees have six pitchers competing for the five spots in the rotation and Hughes knows all eyes will be on him as he attempts to lock down the fifth spot behind CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda. His main competitor for that final spot will be veteran Freddy Garcia who, with Bartolo Colon, helped the Yankees to 97 regular season wins last season.

The Yankees hope that Hughes can find the magic he showed in 2010 and, if Spring Training is any indication, things are looking promising. Reportedly he has lost 20 lbs and looks to be in great shape at the start of camp. I asked MLB.com's Bryan Hoch via Twitter if there had been any word on Hughes’ velocity. He replied “I haven't seen any radar gun readings on Hughes, but the Yankees seem pleased so far.”

For Phil Hughes it would seem that the return of his once-potent fastball and his ability to control it will determine if he can regain a once-guaranteed spot in the Yankee rotation. I know that the Yankees and their fans hope that their bright star returns to shine in Yankeeland once again.




--Steve Skinner, BYB Guest Writer

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