1. CC SabathiaOK, there's no debate here, CC Sabathia is the ace, and will remain the ace for years to come. Last season, CC compiled 19 wins, while posting a 3.00 ERA. He also had a 3.77 K/BB ratio, his best since 2008. At 31 years of age, expect Sabathia to have another ace like season, and contend to win his second Cy Young Award.
2. Michael Pineda
Pineda is one of the two newcomers on the Yankees, as listed in the opening paragraph. As a 22 year old last year, Pineda went 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA with an impressive 9.1 K/9 and a 1.10 WHIP. In terms of talent, he has the upside of an ace, and he's off on a right step following his solid rookie campaign. But, this will be his second season, as well as being a big jump from him from pitching in quiet Seattle, Washington to the big stage in the Bronx. Can he handle it? I think so, or at least, I hope so.
3. Ivan NovaHonestly, I think all of us were pretty surprised of what Ivan Nova showed us in 2011. 16 wins just to four losses and a 3.70 ERA. He also went 8-3 with a 3.18 ERA in 11 starts following his July 30 return from AAA. A forearm strain forced him to exit Game 5 of the ALDS against the Tigers last October after just the second inning, but he'll be good to go for Spring Training. Hopefully Nova can continue his stellar 11 start stretch that finished his 2011 season into his second full season of big league ball in 2012.
4. Hiroki KurodaJust minutes, really, after the Jesus Montero-Michael Pineda trade, Hiroki Kuroda was signed to a 1-year contract by the Yankees. Last season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Kuroda posted career bests in wins (13), ERA, (3.07), innings (202), games started (32), and ERA+ (121). Although, like Pineda, it'll be a whole new ballgame for him in 2012. He moves from the inferior National League West, to the superior American League East. Tougher ballpark, opponents, actually facing a DH, etc, etc. He's 36 years old, so he's near the end of his career, in theory. How much does he have in the tank? We all hope he's got one year, because if he posts numbers like he did in 2011, he'll be a fantastic number four starter.
5. Phil Hughes
Ok, this one may be a bit controversial. As you can see, I have Phil Hughes winning out the number five spot in the rotation. Last year, Hughes sucked. There's no two ways around it. Hughes posted an ugly 5.79 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, and a 10.1 H/9, although a lot of that had to do with his nightmare three start stint to begin the season before getting DL'd due to a dead-arm. Fortunately, in 14 games, 11 starts, Hughes went 5-4 with a decent 4.48 ERA spanning 64.1 innings. The ERA could be inflated a bit because if you scratch out two starts against the Oakland A's (Hey, maybe the A's are a bad match-up for him. Baseball is a funny game) Hughes would have a 2.93 ERA. Hate to cherry-pick like that, but that's how it is. Hughes also had seven quality starts (6 innings or more while allowing 3 earned runs or fewer), and while I don't love the quality start stat, it can be a good stat for number 5 starters like Hughes, and after all, getting a quality start on a team that will score a lot of runs gives you a great chance to win.
6. Freddy GarciaAs of now, I have Freddy Garcia going to the bullpen. Based on last year's results--12 wins, 3.62 ERA--he should be a lock to make the rotation next year. Unfortunately for Garcia, it's not about last year, it's about this year. Most of us can agree that Garcia may have gotten by more than his fair share of times last year with mid-80's fastballs, rolling curve balls, and floating change-ups and splitters. Could he get by with it again this year? Certainly, but I wouldn't bet too much money on it. For now, Garcia ends up in the bullpen.
7. AJ Burnett
I'm going to make this short and sweet. AJ Burnett is brutal, and has been brutal for two years. He has two years and too much money guaranteed on his contract. I'm sick and tired of waiting for AJ to harness his stuff and become a consistent starter for the Yankees. He's 35 years old, and it's the beginning of the end for his career as it is. As the days pass, the chances of seeing electric AJ grow slimmer and slimmer. When the Pineda and Kuroda deals went down, the first thing that popped into my head was that either Phil Hughes, AJ Burnett, or Freddy Garcia will not make the trip up to the Bronx in early April, there's just not enough room to do it. I firmly believe that Brian Cashman will pull another rabbit out of his hat, eat a lot of the remaining money on AJ's contract, and ship him off far away from the Bronx, the further the better. Look, I don't hate the guy personally. I'm sure he's a great guy, I can't stand him as a player, and I'm sick and tired of waiting for him to turn his career around. It'll be the best for both sides if he is dealt....Ok I'm done ranting.
8. David Phelps/Adam Warren
Look, talent wise, both of these minor leaguers don't come close to our next two minor leaguers on this list. But in terms of major league ready ability, they're further ahead. Both of these guys have been in the minors for a few years now, while spending years in college (Phelps at Notre Dame and Warren at North Carolina). Phelps has gone 38-15 with a shiny 2.61 ERA through four seasons of minor league ball, while Warren has gone 21-17 with a 2.85 ERA through three seasons. It's time to see what the Yankees have in these two guys, and I see both of these guys getting long looks in Spring Training, because, let's face it, injuries are inevitable in baseball, you can't predict them, but you know they can happen to anyone through the course of a major league season. And when injuries arise, guys from the minors need to step up. If the Yankees rotation were a lot thinner than what it is right now, I'd expect one of these guys to crack a rotation spot.
9. Manny BanuelosFollowing the Jesus Montero trade, Banuelos elevated as the number one prospect in the Yankees system, at least that's the general consensus, which I agree with. Last season Banuelos posted a 6-7 record, a 3.75 ERA with a very solid 1.2 ground out/ air out ratio through 27 starts and 129.1 innings. Unfortunately, Banulos had a high WHIP (1.55) and a high 4.95 BB/9 as well. The walks are more concerning, but then again, the guy is 20 years old and is pitching in AAA. The Yankees don't have him in AAA for the sake of having him in AAA. He's already in AAA because they know he's got loads of talent, and when he consistently harnesses his stuff, look out.
10. Dellin BetancesI see Betances' 2012 season being a big year for him. For one, he's 23 years old. Ideally, you'd want guys with his talent and age in the big leagues by now. But in his defense, injuries have been a problem for him prior to the 2011 season, so he's behind a bit in his development. Last season, Betances had a 4-9 record with a 3.70 ERA spanning 126.1 innings and 25 starts. If Betances has a big year, he could very well find himself in the 2013 Yankees rotation, or even make a couple of September starts in 2012. We'll have to wait and see. All I know is that I'll keep a close eye on Betances' progress in 2012.
There you have it. As you can see, I'm at least fairly optimistic in nine of the ten starters, and looking at all of last year's numbers, while trying to ponder realistic predictions for these guys in 2012, I have a strong feeling that the starting rotation will be a huge strength for the 2012 Yankees that'll hopefully lead us to a World Championship come late October.
--Jesse Schindler, BYB Staff Writer
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