A YANKEE FAN IN SEATTLE: MY TAKE ON PINEDA

This piece is from a BYB reader and a Yankee fan...Thomas Brophy, who now lives in the Seattle area. We Love Thomas here at Bleeding Yankee Blue and interact with him often on Twitter and Facebook. He's one of the good ones. I wanted to get his take on Pineda and luckily for us, he was happy to. Enjoy this.

--Casey
Like many Yankee fans, I was wondering who the Yankees were going to try and pick up during the off season and was starting to get nervous. All was quiet from the front office and then BANG! We trade for Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda. Woo Hoo! Now, living in Seattle, I had the privilege of seeing Pineda pitch all the time last year and while it is true, he tailed off during the 2nd half of the season, there is no doubt, this kid's got the stuff from what I've seen. He averages a K per inning and his fastball clocks in consistently around 95 mph. Now, in addition his stuff, I also saw a "Beast-mode" mentality when he took the mound. He was composed and he has a great intimidating presence. The downside is that he obviously got tired in the 2nd half of last season and he also seemed to put on some weight. I don't think we need another pitcher with a CC physique . However, in many of Pineda's losses, the M's only scored 1 or no more than 2 runs for him. He didn't have run support. Clearly that won't happen in the Bronx.

Put it this way, if Pineda was on the Yankees and Ivan Nova on the Mariners and you were to take into consideration their run support, this is what their final records would have been:

Seattle provided 98 runs in Pineda’s 28 starts; An average of 3.5 runs per game.

• Pineda and the Seattle relievers allowed 111 runs in those 28 starts (-13 run differential.) That's 4.0 runs per game.

New York provided 162 runs in Nova’s 27 starts: average of 6.0 runs per game.

• Nova and the New York relievers allowed 95 runs in those 27 starts (+67 run differential.) That's 3.5 runs per game.

The illustrated actual splits for Pineda and Nova projected from their splits based on reversing the run support. Proportioned the ratio per each start and adjusted the decision and non-decision accordingly. If Nova had Pineda’s run support his projected W-L record would have gone from 16-3 as a starter to 10-10. See breakdown below:If Pineda had Nova’s run support W-L record his projected W-L record would have gone from 9-10 to 13-5. See breakdown below:These stats were compiled by Jeff Permuy of JPSportstats.
As difficult as it is to lose an up-and-comer like Jesus Montero, this works out to be a win-win for both squads. Mariners needed a bat and my Yanks need another arm. We can always find a spare bat, right? Bottom line, we picked up a future star in Pineda, who could become a #1 or #2 starter in the future and could win as many as 25 games or more. I'm not kidding.

From a Seattle perspective, I can tell you that Mariner fans are rally upset about this trade, they too saw this kid's potential. As a Yankee fan in Seattle, I can safely say, enjoy this kid fellow Yankee fans! I know I will... Pineda is going to rock!



--Thomas Brophy, BYB Guest Writer




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