GOING INSIDE THE NUMBERS WITH THE AL MVP

As of September, there are probably five candidates who can win the American League MVP. Those five guys are Curtis Granderson, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Verlander, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Dustin Pedroia. The two front runners for the award are most likely Curtis Granderson and Adrian Gonzalez. Verlander, Ellsbury, and Pedroia are all having great years, but they either don't have quite the offensive numbers as Grandy and AGon, or they're a starting pitcher like Justin Verlander, who doesn't contribute to the team's success nearly every game like Granderson and Gonzalez.

Let's look at both of the front runner's numbers (As of 8/31):Curtis Granderson: 38 home runs, 107 RBI, 123 runs, and 10 triples all lead the league. Grandy also has a .963 OPS, fourth in the AL, and 24 stolen bases, good for 10th.

Adrian Gonzalez: .342 average, and 184 hits both lead the AL. He is 13th in homers, but is second in RBI with 103. But, he trails Granderson in stolen bases by 23, runs scored by 33, and triples by seven. He's also fifth in the league in OPS at .957.

With those stats in mind, baseball experts believe Gonzalez is right there in the AL MVP race, and some believe he should still win it. But not so fast, if you go inside those numbers you can clearly tell Granderson is by far the better candidate to win the award.Look at how Granderson does against opponents who have a .500 record or better, and against opponents with sub .500 records:

• Above .500 opponents: 63 games, .276 average, 22 homers, 54 RBI, 13 steals, 60 runs, .381 OBP, .627 slugging %, 1.009 OPS

• Below .500 opponents: 68 games, .273 average, 16 homers, 53 RBI, 11 steals, 63 runs, .371 OBP, .553 slugging %, .924 OPS

Now, if you look at those numbers you can see Granderson is pretty much the same player against all types of competition, which is good, because he doesn't fold against elite competition, and that's who he'll face in the postseason.Here are Gonzalez' numbers against above and below .500 opponents:

• Above .500 opponents: 66 games .261 average 68 hits, 13 homers, 48 RBI, .339 OBP, .487 slugging %, .826 OPS.

• Below .500 opponents: 66 games .419 average, 116 hits, 10 homers, 55 RBI, .464 OBP, .617 slugging %, 1.081 OPS.

If you look at Gonzalez' power numbers between the two splits, they're pretty much the same. But the main reason why he's in the MVP discussion is because of his batting average and hits. As you see, his numbers completely drop off when the competition gets tougher. Baseball writers, take note of this.

Sure it's nice Adrian Gonzalez can feed off against the bottom feeders of the league. That's fine and dandy, but anyone can do that. But it's a red flag when his signature batting average and total hits take a huge drop off when he plays better teams. In my eye, to be the most valuable player you have to continue to produce against all kinds of competition, and Granderson is either the same in some categories, or he's better. For Gonzalez, he's the same in some categories, but he drops off significantly against the better teams. I really hope I've caught the voter's eye on this, it really shows that Gonzalez really shouldn't be a front runner for the American League MVP, and that Granderson should be ahead of the pack.




--Jesse Schindler, BYB Staff Writer




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