Monday, September 12, 2011

PREDICTING THE YANKEES POSTSEASON ROTATION

The title pretty much says it all. I'll predict the four starters that will start games for the Yankees in the 2011 postseason.
(Photo: Getty)
1. CC Sabathia- 31 starts, 19-8, 2.93 ERA, 218.1 innings, 1.195 WHIP, 8.70 K/9, 2.2 BB/9.

This is the most obvious choice. He's the ace, and he'll start Game 1 of the ALDS for sure, and he's earned every penny since joining the Yankees in 2009.(Photo: Getty)
2. Ivan Nova- 24 starts, 15-4, 3.94 ERA, 144 innings, 1.34 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

Despite the win-loss record, those numbers don't scream number two starter for a team who has a legit shot to win the whole thing, but he's been very good since coming back from AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on July 30th. In his eight starts since his return he's gone 7-0 with a 3.75 ERA and a 6.3 K/9 rate, and a 2.27 BB/9 rate. He's proven time and time again that he can handle adversity. No need to baby him, he can pitch game two, no doubt.

3. Freddy Garcia- 22 starts, 11-7, 3.50 ERA, 131 innings, 1.31 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9

This season Garcia has been more than what the Yankees expected this season. According to Fangraphs.com, HERE, Garcia's average fastball velocity is 87.2 mph, and he only uses it 36.9% of the time. He's shown all season long that you don't need a plus fastball to be effective, and that if you hit your spots, change speeds effectively, and limit the damage, you can survive in the AL East. A.J Burnett, I hope you're taking notes.(Photo: Getty)
4. Phil Hughes- 13 starts, 4-5, 6.41 ERA, 66 innings, 1.50 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9

OK, I'm throwing a major curve ball here. I highly doubt anyone will agree with me on Hughes starting in the playoffs. But I'm not here to agree with everyone, I'm here to make a point. Hughes suffered a dead arm and shoulder inflammation early in the season and had to miss significant time. Since his return from the DL on July 5th he's gone 4-4 in 11 games with a 5.01 ERA and a 5.5 K/9 and a 2.7 BB/9. Still, those numbers won't convince anyone that he should start in the playoffs. But let me do some more cherry picking. His two worst outings since coming off the DL are against the Oakland A's in which he's combined to give up 13 runs in seven innings. So, if you take out those two starts against Oakland he's gone 4-4 with a 3.26 ERA. That sounds a lot better, doesn't it?(Photo: Getty)
Bullpen: Bartolo Colon- 23 starts, 8-9, 3.55 ERA, 152 innings, 1.23 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9

This season Colon has been a godsend for sure. He hadn't pitched in a major league game since 2009, and he hadn't pitched a full season since 2005, but he's been much more than the Yankees expected. But, if you compare his numbers to Hughes, you'd have to say Colon deserves to start in the playoffs. But there's one number on Colon's stat line that stands out the most. And that's his 152 innings pitched. He hasn't thrown that many innings since 2005, and he's combined to throw 257 total innings since the start of the 2006 season. I hate to be a downer, but Colon will eventually run out of gas. Sure his last start against the Angels won't support my theory, but that's just one start. Before his start against the Angels, Colon has gone 2-5 with a 4.58 ERA while allowing 10 H/9 and allowing eight of his 11 home runs since the All Star Break.(Photo: Getty)
Off the Roster: AJ Burnett- 29 starts, 9-11, 5.27 ERA, 172.1 innings, 1.45 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 4.1 BB/9

Ok, this one is a no-brainer to all Yankee fans. For the last two years Alan James Burnett has been terrible. He gets paid $16.5 million a year to be a number two starter, and right now he's a number six starter. Girardi has yet to pull the trigger on sending AJ to the bullpen for the remainder of the season, but that'll come soon. His numbers are actually worse since July 4th. He's gone 1-5 with a 7.26 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in that span. And unsurprisingly this season he has given up the most runs in the league, and has thrown the most wild pitches in the league with 101 and 23, respectively. You can make a legit argument that Burnett is the worst starting pitcher in baseball, or at least the worst in the AL.




--Jesse Schindler, BYB Staff Writer




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