YANKEES PROJECTIONS 2011: THE STARTING ROTATION

(photo: William Perlman/Star-Ledger)
#1. CC Sabathia: 21 Wins, 3.22 ERA, 232 IP, 208 K's. Since Sabathia joined the Yankeees, he has been worth every penny, going 40-15 with a 3.27 ERA. In the postseason, he has a 5-1 record with a 3.09 ERA, including the 2009 ALCS MVP. But, going into this season there are spreading rumors that the big fella could opt-out of his deal that has him signed through the 2015 season. Personally, I have a feeling he'll opt-out. Whether the Yankees should re-sign him or not if he opts out is an argument for another day. For now, look for Sabathia to have another typical Sabathia type year. He's the clear ace for the Yankees and he'll prove it once more in 2011.

#2. A.J. Burnett: 16-7, 4.12 ERA, 204 IP, 165 K's. Unlike Sabathia, Burnett hasn't earned every penny since joining the Yankees. Combined in 2009 and 2010 he has a 23-24 record with a 4.61 ERA. In the postseason he has a 1-2 record with a 5.67 ERA. Now, those numbers sound like Burnett has been a bust. But not so fast. In the World Series in 2009 against the Philadelphia Phillies, Burnett and the Yankees were down 0-1 and a shaky Burnett was on the hill for game two. In seven innings, Burnett struck out nine Phillies and allowed just one run. And thus, the Yankees were on their way. In 2010, as we all know, he struggled mightily with a 10-15 record and a 5.26 ERA. He had two main excuses that are no longer valid this season. One of those being Jorge Posada being the catcher. We all know their disagreements over the last couple years. But, Posada won't be catching this season. The second being Dave Eiland. Burnett and Eiland have had their troubles last season, probably one of the reasons why Eiland was let go after the 2010 campaign. This time, new pitching coach Larry Rothschild will deal with Burnett, and I think he can straighten him out. Burnett is becoming a more of a ferris wheel pitcher, based on his delivery, than a merry-go-round pitcher. Look for that to be a plus for Burnett, and look for Burnett to have a season like he did in 2009. The best part of Burnett so far this year... he's 2-0.

#3. Phil Hughes: 17-8, 3.85 ERA, 206 IP, 184 K's. The training wheels are finally off of Phil Hughes, and I emphasize the word "finally." The innings limit is off, and now he can pitch 200 innings without the question of being pulled early after each start. But, there has been a red flag raised about Phil Hughes. Hughes' fastball velocity has dipped substantially, around at 87-89, instead of his usual 92-95. It was like that most of Spring Training, and it was like that in his first start and second start. I don't know if it's from his increase in innings the year (86 in '09 to 176 in 2010), but he needs his fastball velocity to get back to the 92-95 mph mark for him to have a chance to have a good season.
(photo: AP)
#4. Ivan Nova: 13-7, 4.10 ERA, 181 IP, 113 K's. "Super Nova" got his chance in Spring Training to nab one of the two spots open in the Yankees' rotation, and by going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA, he won the fourth spot easily. Last season, he appeared in the majors for the first time with the Yankees going 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 10 games, seven of those were starts. The only trouble with Nova is he allows an opponents batting average to balloon to .400 the third time around, versus a .196 opponents average the first time, and .246 the second time. That is probably to be expected since Nova is inexperienced. But, with Nova being in his first full season as a starter in the bigs, along with the help of pitching coach Larry Rothschild and his "big brother" Burnett, Nova should get over that hump a bit and pitch better in those situations. Nova should be a good bet at the four spot all season long.
(photo: AP)
#5. Freddy Garcia: 3-5, 5.35 ERA, 12 starts. Although Garcia got out out-dealed by Bartolo Colon in spring training, Garcia was handed the number five spot in the Yankee's rotation in part because he was able to pitch a full season in 2010, in which he went 12-6 with a 4.64 ERA in 28 starts with the Chicago White Sox. Meanwhile, Colon didn't pitch in 2010 at all. And he last pitched in the 2009 season when he went 3-6 with a 4.19 ERA with the White Sox. But, although he may have a couple of good outings, I don't expect Garcia to last long. I think he'll fizzle out by June, and possibly get cut, or at least get demoted to the bullpen. My opinion of course. But with Garcia being a fly ball pitcher, without a very hard fastball, I wouldn't be surprised to see several balls fly out of the park when he's on the hill. We will see.

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--Jesse Schindler, BYB Guest Writer
My Blog: The Pinstriped Personality



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