GETTING INSIDE CASHMAN'S HEAD

Yes, it's true... I am now anticipating that the New York Yankees will trade for a starter before the July 31 trading deadline.  I have spent years trying to get into Brian Cashman’s head and understanding how he thinks.  The David Robertson, Todd Frazier deal came out of nowhere, but I get it totally.  And now I've been thinking about starters as well.

Photo: Getty Images

The Yanks have 4 decent starters already in Tanaka, Severino, Sabathia, and Montgomery.  When they had Pineda as well, they were all set and would find difficulty upgrading any of their 5 starters enough to make giving up prospects worthwhile.  Now, with Pineda gone, it's my opinion their best option is Chance Adams.  I think Adams could step in now and likely do as well or better than most starters that the Yankees would be able to trade for.  Thus, for 2017, it is not worth giving up prospects to get a starting pitcher.

However, Cashman will also be thinking about 2018 and 2019.  Looking ahead to 2018, the Yanks will likely have Tanaka back.  I doubt Tanaka will opt out of 3 years, $68M given the year he's had.  While it's true he could reels off an amazing second half, I doubt it strongly, and so, he'll be back next year.  And so, that gives us Tanaka, Severino, Montgomery and Chance Adams for 2018.  But who will be the 5th starter? 

Photo: Newsday

Kaprielian is not ready yet given his surgery.  I doubt any of our other pitching prospects (i.e. Justus Sheffield) is ready.  So the Yanks will either need to re-sign CC to a 1-year deal or they will need to go out and get a starter via trade or free agency.  And so, let’s look at each of those options:

Free Agents:

Looking at the 2017-18 free agent class, I think the I would rule out the free agent possibility.  The only decent starters that are going to be free agents are all over 30 years old and will be looking for long-term deals.  Those options are:

Photo: Getty Images

Yu Darvish: The Yankees are not going to give $20M per year to a 31-year old pitcher coming off TJ surgery.  Yes, someone will pay Darvish, but I don’t see Cashman doing it.  The Yanks are looking only at younger players these days.  They are not giving out $100M contracts to guys that are already 30+ anymore. My opinion of course....

Jake Arrieta: See above.  Arrieta will be 32 next season.  He will want big money, but he is not even performing well this year with an ERA of 4.17.

Photo: Getty Images

Johnny Cueto: Cueto can opt out of his last 4 years and $84M of his contract with the Giants.  If he does that, he will obviously want at least a 5-year deal for $20M per year.  But he will be 32 and currently has an ERA of 4.59.  No thanks.

CC Sabathia: If CC continues to pitch well down the stretch, I think this could be an option.  But if he continues to pitch well, CC may be able to get more than a 1-year deal, which would rule him out.  I believe Cashman would consider CC more of a fall back option though, not a primary.  That's because Cashman doesn’t know whether CC will continue to pitch well enough to warrant a spot in the 2018 rotation, or that CC will be willing to accept a 1-year deal even after having pitched well.

Personally, I don’t think that the CC, 1-year deal option will impact Cashman’s decision concerning whether to make a trade for a starting pitcher that the Yanks can use in the 2018 rotation. 

Now let's look at trades, because that's where I'm going with this.  If Cashman has already concluded that he will not be signing a free agent starting pitcher, which I believe he has, then his only primary option to fill the 2018 open rotation spot is via a trade. 

Photo: New York Daily News

With a trade for a starting pitcher that is under control for 2018 and possibly beyond, Cashman can solve the 2018 rotation problem now.  Of course, it is possible he would wait for the Winter, but some of the guys that are available now will no longer be available in the Winter.  While I don’t think Cashman is going to give up #1 Gleyber Torres, #2 Clint Frazier, #5 James Kaprelian, #6 Justus Sheffield, or #7 Chance Adams, I do think he will give up a few other prospects to get a good starter that is under control for at least 2018. 

I think #4 Jorge Mateo could be dealt if the price was right.  I also think that #9 Miguel Andujar, #11 Tyler Wade, or #14 Tyler Austin are all players Yanks might deal to get a starter. 

And this is now me in Cashman's head.  With all I've now stated, I believe a trade will happen... and here are the options:

Photo: Getty Images

Sonny Gray: I think Gray is a good possibility for the Yankees.  He is under control through 2019 and is only 27 years old and is pitching decently this year.  The difficulty in getting Gray is that I don’t know that you can get him without giving up a top prospect.  The Cubs gave up their #1 prospect (#8 overall) plus more to get Jose Quintana, who had an ERA over 5.00.  Teams will give up good prospects to get a young starter that has years of control.  So the Yankees may fall short in trying to acquire Gray if other teams step up, which is likely.

Gerrit Cole: Another young starter (26) who is controlled through 2019.  Cole might make sense as his 4.35 ERA might have lowered his value enough that Yankees could get him without giving up top prospects.

Photo: Sun Sentinel

Dan Straily: Marlins may be having a fire sale.  Straily put up a 14-8 record in 2016 with an ERA of 3.76 with the Reds, and has continued to pitch well starting for the Marlins this year (7-4, 3.32).  He is under control through 2021.  I believe the Yankees might be interested.

Julio Teheran: Julio is 26 and signed through 2019.  Braves are actually in the race, but may realize it is not realistic that they can contend.  Teheran had a 3.21 ERA in 30 starts in 2016, but he is not pitching well this year (4.69) so he could be had.

Look, in the end, I think I have finally cracked the code to Cashman's brain.  I think I was able to really pick apart the options, and really come to some decent options for our Yankees.  Will any of this happen? Who honestly knows... really. I do know this though... we need to get back on track, and a starter that can really help our club.

But enough about my thoughts. What do you think? Comment.

--Douglas Solomon

BYB Guest Writer

SILLY BOWDEN... THE YANKEES ARE NOT MAY SELLERS!

I love reading opinion articles about the Yankees. Sometimes, you find that article that you just scratch your head and then re-read it because you want to make sure you read it correctly and you aren't going crazy imagining things. That was me earlier today. I found a piece over at ESPN that I found myself talking to as I read it to myself. When that happens you know it is a good one and in this case it had "please refute me BYB" written all over it.

I am a baseball geek so I subscribe to ESPN insider and their magazine so what I read online is not available for everyone to read since it is subscription based, but if you subscribe like me you can find that link HERE.  Jim Bowden's story has some interesting ideas in it, and for those who can't read it the basic idea behind the article is that the Yankees become sellers now rather than later around the trade deadline and just ride out the rest of the season until they prepare for next year. I'm just not ready to give up!

1) Dismantle the bullpen and reload
The Yankees have one of the best (if not the best) bullpen in baseball. The article suggests that the Yankees could put Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman on the trade market and get as many as 6-8 good prospects for them. While I like the idea of getting some good prospects, I don't think the Yankees need to abandon their greatest strength so early in the season. I wouldn't be heartbroken if the Yankees gave up Chapman, because he is only guaranteed to us this year but I am not okay with giving up Betances, He is young, we still have control over his contract and he is one of our own.

2) Trade Carlos Beltran
Again not an idea that I am completely opposed to. Beltran will be a free agent at the end of the season, but he is still an asset to the team for now. He is a leader in the clubhouse and is valued so much that he was given the Roberto Clemente award in 2013 and he was a mentor for Aaron Judge during spring training. Speaking of Judge, until he is ready to come up to the majors it makes sense for Beltran to stick around. If the Yankees are going to trade Beltran keep him until Judge is ready to come up towards the end of the season. His leadership may be worth more than a lower level pitching prospect.

3) Eliminate one bad contract and replace it for another?
Jacoby Ellsbury hasn't lived up to expectations. The media has openly criticized him and we have too here at BYB but the Yankees are trying to avoid bad contracts. We have also had our fair share of controversy with players and performance enhancing drugs. Yankee brass is ready to be finished with Alex Rodriguez and his performance enhancing drugs connection....so why add Ryan Braun to the mix as Bowden suggests? Ellsbury may be under performing but I value his integrity over Braun's poor judgment to be connected with PEDs twice now. That may just be me but....I am tired of talking about ARod's troublesome past so I would rather not do the same for Braun.

4) Reinvent Michael Pineda or upgrade?
Ok, so I agree Pineda is inconsistent but that seems to be the theme for this team. I also agree that the Yankees need to do some more digging and see if changing his endurance training, off day throwing routines and mechanics will help improve him. Where I differ with Bowden is the idea of trading him for Julio Teheran and Freddie Freeman. The article mentions trying to reinvent and figure him out in exchange for Greg Bird. First of all....I am not a huge Freeman fan. Second, I am not giving up Greg Bird for a reclamation project. Mark Teixeira is gone next year and I would much rather have Bird then Freeman and his expensive contract. Bird is the best candidate the Yankees have, and the free agent market doesn't look so promising.

5) Get rid of some big name dead weight
I am all for getting rid of those who cannot pull their weight and contribute, but in this case Bowden suggests walking away from both Tex and Chase Headley. I already asked who was replacing Tex. I am not so sure the Yankees are ready to embrace the idea of Nick Swisher at first and I'm sorry but Dustin Ackley is not an option. As far as Headley goes, as long as the Yankees can find a replacement I wouldn't cry over losing him but it needs to be thought out and not just a quick band-aid fix. It just needs to make sense.

6) Just give up on 2016 now
I'm sorry but we are the damn New York Yankees.....and we don't give up. Who gives up in May?! There is so much baseball left and a lot can change. The Yankees have not become so successful by just giving up. We are determined, gritty and we are fighters. Sure, having a losing season means a great draft pick but who wants a consolation prize? We expect to go out and compete every year and George Steinbrenner would also still expect that also. We are not changing our culture. We don't believe in the idea that "There is always next season" and I refuse to have that mindset.

7) Open the wallet next season
While all Yankee fans like the idea of having some money to go out and get some impact players that is not the direction that Hal has been going in for awhile now. It's all about saving money, developing the farm and growing our own players and getting under the luxury tax. Hal holds the purse strings, and he is not the big spender that his father was. However, I do like the idea of getting Edwin Encarnacion....so you wouldn't hear me complain there, Bowden.

So, when was the last time the Yankees became sellers BEFORE the trade deadline? I don't know. I also don't want to know and I don't want to start thinking like that now. It's too early to be thinking about sacrificing 2016 for next season. Yankee fans don't think that way and I for one am not about to start!


   
--Jeana Bellezza, 
BYB Senior Writer and Editor
Twitter: @NyPrincessJ 
 





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