BANUELOS & BETANCES: A KILLER B'S UPDATE

It’s really no secret that the trio of Killer B’s, that is Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, and Andrew Brackman, were among the game’s most hyped prospects going into last season. All three placed on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list after putting up stellar performances in High-A Tampa and AA Trenton and the Yankees blogosphere was absolutely brimming with enthusiasm; "Future ace" this, "intimidating frame" that… you would have thought they were all established major leaguers on ten year contracts.

We at Bleeding Yankee Blue, myself in particular, played no small part in this hype. The scouting reports were sparkling and the numbers, for the most part, supported it. So where have these wonderful young arms gone since we last checked in? To put it frankly, they have not exactly gone where we expected.

As you know if you read our stuff or any other Yankees blog regularly, the Yankees declined to exercise Andrew Brackman’s 2012 option and he signed with the Cincinnati Reds. I personally thought he had some promise out of the bullpen, but his option came with a salary raise and they deemed that he wasn’t worth the risk.
And then there were two...

Dellin Betances

• 2012 with AAA Scranton: 3-5, 5.92/5.98 (e/f), 8.23 K/9, 8.09 BB/9(!!!), 1.16 HR/9, .240 BAA, 62.1 IP (Last outing not recorded here)

Barring a miraculous turnaround, Dellin Betances is simply not what he was hyped up to be. Despite absolutely filthy stuff, including a mid to upper 90's fastball, a biting power curve in the low 80's, and a change-up that was not as bad as you might expect from him, his mechanically unsound delivery will prevent him from reaching his sky high ceiling. His back leg collapses with every pitch, he loses his arm slot, and generally every moving part is a bit different from pitch to pitch. The result? Awful command and control, as indicated by the eye-popping 8.09 BB/9.

So why did he have so much success in the lower levels? It’s debatable, you could certainly assume that batter’s eyes have gotten better as he’s moved up the ladder, and while a power curve with a ton of movement following a blistering fastball may fool the Gulf Coast League regardless of location, the players in the International League are experienced enough to tell he is almost never near the zone. However, the even more disconcerting answer is that his mechanics may have actually deteriorated. It could be a lasting result of his tendency towards injury or just that he’s formed bad habits over time. The fact of the matter is he just cannot consistently repeat his delivery, and if you can’t repeat your delivery, you can’t throw strikes.

All hope isn’t lost for Betances however. As I've said, he still has some of the nastiest raw stuff you’ll find in the minors, as indicated by the low batting average against. While it may take a small miracle for him to revitalize his starting career, finding him a home in the bullpen is not far-fetched at all. I doubt they’ll make the move until late this season, perhaps as a potential late season reinforcement, but he’s well suited to the role. He’s been out a while so you may have forgotten, but David Robertson, he of the career 4.7 BB/9, is not exactly the master of throwing strikes. Mariano Rivera may have made us forget, but relievers do not need impeccable control of their pitches to succeed. Betances has power, strikeout stuff (career 10.1 K/9) that is quite likely to play up well out of the bullpen. With Robertson clearly better suited for a setup role, Rafael Soriano only hanging around through next season, and Phil Hughes perhaps finally settling into life as a starter, it wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world to begin grooming him to be Mo’s replacement, whenever that does become necessary. The front office may see it as giving up on a big project and admitting defeat, but it may the best way to salvage some value. If you recall, they pulled Betances out of the 8th round, so this isn’t a Hughes situation where going to the bullpen is some colossal failure. It may not be what they had in mind, but there’s no real shame if that ends up happening.

Manny Banuelos

• 2012 with AAA Scranton: 0-2, 4.50/3.83 (e/f), 8/13 K/9, 4.98 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9, .299 BAA, 34.1 IP

The crown jewel of the system has not quite dominated the way many expected him to. While his ERA isn’t downright atrocious like Betances, it’s merely average at best. His FIP is solid at 3.83, which opens up the possibility that he is out pitching his basic numbers. Still, the numbers are not exactly what you like to see from a hyped up future number one or two starter who is expected to get a look for the Bigs next year. Manny B has also had some injury concerns, starting with a back issue that shelved him for most April and before moving on to an elbow injury that has kept him out since May 18th. The injury is not considered to be serious, but naturally the Yankees want to be as careful as possible. Manny represents cheap, potentially high quality starting, perhaps the most crucial type of player in cutting payroll to meet the goals of the 2014 austerity plan. To risk his health is to risk the success of the team and/or the ability to avoid major luxury tax penalties.

Beyond the basic stat line, the news on Manny is actually fairly good. While two early performances in which he combined for 6 ER and 7 BB across only 5.1 IP have made his numbers ugly, those came right before being placed on the DL. Not that Manny has displayed phenomenal command these past few years, but 6 walks in only 2 innings is a bit too much, so I personally find it hard to believe his early struggles weren’t caused at least in part by the back injury.

Upon his return, he pitched to a 2.89 ERA across 18.2 innings with a 9.64 K/9 and a 1.44 BB/9 before being sidelined again. To make those numbers even more impressive, all 3 walks and 5 of the 6 runs he gave up in those 18.2 innings came in his final start before landing on the DL again. Again, we may not be able to completely attribute his struggles in that start to an injury, but there is little doubt that it played some part in it.

So if you take out starts immediately preceding his two injuries, Manny has pitched to a 0.61 ERA with a 9.20 K/9 and 0.00 BB/9. I understand that it may be unreasonable to completely disregard those three starts, after all you can take out AJ Burnett’s bad nights in 2011 and suddenly he looks like an ace, but I also think it is unreasonable to ignore the sheer dominance Manny has displayed when completely healthy. At just a bit over twenty-one years old, Manny has plenty of time to continue developing, and is already showing flashes of his potential brilliance. The numbers may not be flashy on the surface, but unlike his fellow Bs, there’s still no reason to bet against him becoming a successful major league starter.

The infamous rule of three really seems to be in effect here. For those of you who don’t know, the rule of three states that when there are three supposedly elite pitching prospects, one will become a successful starter, one will become a reliever, and one will flame out. This seemed to hold true with Ian Kennedy, the successful starter, Joba, the reliever (when he’s healthy that is), and Phil Hughes, who until very recently seemed to be flaming out. Only time will tell if the prophecy holds entirely true this time, but it certainly seems to be moving in that direction.

After a long hiatus to follow the hockey season, I have to say it is great to back and writing for you all. I look forward to my continued contribution here… so let’s go Yankees.

--Grant Cederquist, BYB Contributor

ORDER A BYB SHIRT NOW, DROB WEARS ONE! Also, Please comment, we have DISQUS, it's easier than ever. Let me know what you think and follow me on Twitter @BleednYankeeBlu and join the group Bleeding Yankee Blue on Facebook, just type it in.

THE BYB SABERMETRCIS ENCYCLOPEDIA

While we have gained something of a reputation as a blog who likes to cut through a lot of the stats that can overwhelm someone merely trying to get their daily Yankees news, we do make a conscious effort to make use of available statistics.

Some of us utilize modern advanced metrics, while the others go with traditional numbers. This mix is what I believe makes Bleeding Yankee Blue the special place it is, that and of course, you, the readers.

Today, I'm introducing a new post, alittle something different for BYB, but don't worry, we're not going to totally get geeky on you. What we've done is compiled a single page that simply explains the most common statistics. It's our quick and easy database, or, the BYB Sabermetric Encyclopedia featuring some of the most commonly used advanced metrics and I'll do my best to explain each stat so you can judge whether or not you buy it. In a nutshell, anything with a slightly ambiguous name can likely be found in this post, to help guide you through the world of Sabermetrics. If you have a request for an explanation of any statistic not listed, leave a comment and I’ll make sure to help you out.

So here it is...the BYB Sabermetrics Encyclopedia...

BABIP

Batting Average on Balls In Play is exactly what it sounds like: the likelihood that when a player puts a ball in play, it will be a hit. If a player comes to the plate 10 times, walks once, strikes out twice, gets three hits, and puts it in play for an out four times, their BABIP would be .429. BABIP has become synonymous with luck recently, with analysts often citing a low BABIP as a result of opposing defenders making great plays or the ball never seeming to find the gaps. However, this is only true in the case that a player’s BABIP suddenly dips below their career average while retaining their previous line drive, groundball, and fly ball rates. Similarly, a high BABIP does not necessarily indicate good luck, as some players simply have a knack for getting a hit when the ball is put in play. Derek Jeter has a very high career.355 BABIP, but it’d be foolish to say he’s been lucky his entire career.

ERA+/ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-

I’ve lumped these four together because they are all essentially the same thing with slightly different names. They are all numbers put on a scale in which 100 is league average, accounting for ballparks played in. In ERA+, 100 is average, below 100 is below average, and above 100 is above average. Mariano Rivera is the all-time ERA+ leader with a freakish 206. The other three are just the opposite, below 100 is above average and vice versa. FIP and xFIP obviously measure the f/x part of the line against league average, but the concept is the same. While imperfect like all stats, it is more or less the most accurate measurement of a pitcher’s past performance and is particularly useful for comparing pitchers across different eras.

FIP

By far the most commonly used of the advanced pitching metrics, Fielding Independent Pitching works under the assumption that the only three things a pitcher has direct control of are walks, strikeouts, and homeruns. It uses the formula [13*HR+3*(BB+HBP-IBB)-2*K]/IP + a constant. The constant is used to bring the number up to an ERA scale, just so it computes more successfully with traditional baseball thinking. While ERA is still the better judge of what exactly happened in a season prior, FIP has been shown to be a better predictor of future performance. In 2011, CC Sabathia led the AL in FIP at 2.88, beating out Justin Verlander’s 2.99. Going off this data, Sabathia is likely to be the most dominant pitcher in the league next year.

FIP will often be found along with ERA and xFIP (next up) inan e/f/x line. For example, 3.00/2.88/3.02.

ISO

Isolated Power is a measurement of a player’s raw power. It differs from SLG because a high SLG still correlates to a high batting average. ISO is just SLG-BA, so a low batting average won’t drag down a player’s power numbers. In 2008, Mark Teixeira’s SLG was .552, while this past year he slugged only .494. Such a significant drop would normally indicate a loss of power, but his ISO in 2011 was actually higher (.246) than it was in 2008 (.244). It can be used to show if a player is losing power or is getting fewer hits. While we’d all like Teixeira to hit .308 likehe did in 2008, it is at least comforting to know that when he gets a hit these days, it’s just as likely to be for extra bases as ever.

OBP, SLG, and OPS

Easily the most mainstream of all sabermetric stats, I’m sure you’re all accustomed to seeing AVG/OBP/SLG lines, such as Curtis Granderson’s .262/.364/.552 in 2011. On Base Percentage removes the fatal flaw of average: failing to account for a player’s ability to draw walks. The formula used is (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SacFlies), so sacrifice flies do count towards on-base percentage, but sacrifice bunts do not. Slugging is a measurement of a player’s power, using the formula (1B+2*2B+3*3B+4*HR)/AB. OPS is short for On Base plus Slugging, which is just the two numbers added together. Most analysts would say that OBP is the more important stat, so there is a flaw in just combining the two numbers and giving SLG more importance, since it tends to be higher than OBP even with mostly slap singles hitters, but it is an adequate measuring stick for a player’s all-around offensive game.

OPS+

Similar to ERA+, OPS+ is a player’s OPS (see above) adjusted to league average and accounting for ballparks played in. 100 is average, above 100 is above average,and below 100 is below average.

SIERA

The most comprehensive and complicated of all the pitching stats, SIERA is the closest thing we have to a be all end all pitching statistic. The formula is exceedingly complex:

SIERA = 6.145 – 16.986*(SO/PA) + 11.434*(BB/PA) –1.858*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) + 7.653*((SO/PA)^2) +/– 6.664*(((GB-FB-PU)/PA)^2) +10.130*(SO/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) – 5.195*(BB/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA)

I won’t bother attempting to explain it and I won’t even pretend that I really understand its inner workings. However I can tell you that whenever I go into deep analysis of a pitcher using many other statistics, my resulting conclusion is usually something akin to what SIERA alone could have told me. For more information on it check out Baseball Prospectus.

UZR

Ultimate Zone Rating is a measurement of a player’s defensive ability to save runs based on the strength of their arm, ability to turn double plays, their range, and the number of errors they make. Brett Gardner led the entire league in UZR last year with a stellar 25.2 (for reference, 15+ is considered Gold Glove caliber). Due to the fact that players participate in a defensive play less frequently than they do in offensive plays,UZR, and all defensive metrics, are most accurate if used in 3 year increments. If you used only 2011, Curtis Granderson would have been a below average fielder at -5.1 However, using a 3 year sample, he averages out to… dead average at 0, perfectly acceptable for a player of his offensive caliber.

WAR

Wins Above Replacement is a measurement of the number of team wins a player is worth over a theoretical standardized AAA replacement player, taking into account performance and value of the position played (i.e.center fielders, catchers, and shortstops are valued more since offense is arare commodity in these positions). There are a few types of WAR, specifically bWAR and fWAR, which stand for Baseball-Reference.com WAR and Fangraphs WAR. I generally prefer fWAR, but for pitchers bWAR is sometimes said to be a better measurement of what happened while fWAR is a more accurate predictor since it uses DIPS (defensive independent pitching statistics) such as FIP. For position players, I find fWAR to be more accurate in nearly all cases. bWAR is broken down into oWAR, offensive WAR, and dWAR, defensive WAR for position players. These are exactly what they sound like, simply showing the value those individual parts of a player’s game provide.

WHIP

Perhaps the most mainstream of all pitching stats, Walksplus Hits per Inning Pitched is simply the number of base runners a pitcher allows to reach per inning. Somehow MLB Network decided that WHIP was actually number of base runners allowed per 9 innings, so there was the curious scenario in which AJ Burnett was so good that he only allowed an average of 1.434 men to reach base per 9 innings. If this were true we’d be insane to have traded him away, but that is certainly not what it is. Use the relatively simple formula (H+BB+HBP)/IP to find WHIP.

wOBA

Weighted On BaseAverage takes the flaws of OBP and SLG, which are failing to account for power and plate discipline respectively, and the obvious problem with just sticking a plus sign in between them, and produces a new number which accounts for all events using the formula(0.72*NIBB + 0.75*HBP + 0.90*1B + 0.92*RBOE + 1.24*2B + 1.56*3B + 1.95*HR) / PA. As with SIERA, the inner working of the numbers elude me, but when I spend a long time analyzing players using other, simpler sabermetrics, it often ends up giving me the same data I could have obtained by simply looking at wOBA, so it gets my highest level of recommendation.

wRC+

wRC+ is the wOBA version of OPS+, measuring a player’s wOBA against league average and accounting for parks played in. It works on the same scale in which 100 is average, above is above average, etc.

xFIP

Expected Fielding Independent Pitching goes one step further and assumes that pitchers cannot even consistently control the home runs theygive up. The formula is the same as FIP’s, but their home run total is replaced with a league average rate. This can be useful in predicting how a pitcher might fair in a more or less homer friendly ballpark than the one they currently pitch in. For example, Matt Cain finished 2011 with a wonderfully low 2.88 and an equally great 2.91FIP. However, his xFIP of 3.78 indicates that any team which plays in a smaller ballpark should tread lightly when offering Matt Cain a big free agent contract if and when he hits the market.

I hope you enjoy what Casey is bound to call my "Nerd" post. Sure, he breaks chops about Sabermetrics, but I know he respects it. Hopefully this post will be helpful for those of you who are curious about Sabermetrics. Oh yeah... and Let's Go Yankees!

--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer

Please comment, we have DISQUS, it's easier than ever. Let me know what you think and follow me on Twitter @BleednYankeeBlu and join the group Bleeding Yankee Blue on Facebook, just type it in.

TOP 5 YANKEE PROSPECTS OF 2012: #1

#1. Manny Banuelos

LHP (6-7, 3.75 ERA, 129.2 IP, 8.7 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 9.0 H/9, 1.550 WHIP,
20 games at AA Trenton, 7 games at AAA Scranton Wilkes-Barre)

A quick look at the numbers will tell you that Dellin Betances actually had a better season than ManBan. In addition to having a lower ERA, higher K/9, lower H/9, and better WHIP, Betances' BB/9 is virtually identical to Banuelos'. With all the hype surrounding Manny, it's hard to believe 2011 was only his age 20 season, which makes him 3 years younger than Dellin. For reference, when Betances was 20 years old, he spent most of the season in Single-A Charleston. No matter how you slice it, Manny is incredibly young and is perhaps the most unfinished project of all the Yankees' top pitching prospects. He displayed uncharacteristically bad command and control this past season, but given that prior to 2011 his command was usually cited as his best attribute, I expect it's either a blip or trouble harnessing the velocity he added late last year.As for the stuff, it's all there and better than ever. He still sits 92-95 with the fastball, has an excellent change-up that's proven to work against Major Leaguers (see Youkilis, Kevin), and a curve ball that has gone from decent offering to true plus pitch over the past couple of years. He'll need another season in the minors to regain the command that made him a top prospect, but by the beginning of 2013 the wait for Banuelos should finally be over.

Big league comparison: Ricky Romero

If you haven't yet seen #5 through #2 of BYB's Top Yankee Prospects of 2012, they are:
#5 Jose Campos
#4 Gary Sanchez
#3 Dellin Betances
#2 Mason Williams

We hope you enjoyed out list. Tell us what you think...comment.



--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer

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TOP 5 YANKEE PROSPECTS OF 2012: #2

#2. Mason Williams


CF (.349/.395/.468, 3 homers, 28 SB, 31 RBI, 68 games played at
Low-A Staten Island)

I have no doubt this will be a somewhat controversial pick. However, as stated previously, Mason's speed and ability to drive the ball to all fields make him, at least in my mind, a more certain thing than Dellin Betances in spite of being 5 years younger. Being a more certain thing doesn't mean his ceiling is any lower though, there is still tons of raw talent to develop. To think a kid can hit .349 while still being most attractive as undeveloped talent is a scary thought. When drafted, he was not expected to hit for much power anywhere along the way. While I'm not suggesting he'll be a 30 home run player, his 6 triples and 11 doubles show that the power is present. With a shrimpy 6', 150 pound frame, Williams could very well add enough bulk to turn those extra base hits into homers. Being a lefty batter, this is especially true if he sticks around with the Yankees and is able to take advantage of the infamous short porch.
We are talking about a true five-tool player here. He stole bases at a 70% success rate (28/40), which is especially impressive when you take into account his slow start in which he was caught 5 out of 9 times. As his instincts developed, he became nearly impossible to catch. That speed obviously plays up out in center-field and he has a solid arm to go with it. The contact hitting is obviously there with a .349 average. The only thing that's absent right now is the aforementioned power, and there is certainly room and time for that to come.

In order to be an ideal lead-off man, Williams will have to improve his plate discipline. In 298 plate appearances, he took only 20 walks, which comes out to a 4.6% walk rate. There are certainly players at the major-league level who do no better than that, but seldom do you see a superstar walking that little. Luckily, Williams seems to have the baseball IQ to develop a better approach at the plate and unlock his full potential. If he fails to live up to my lofty expectations, he still makes great contact, plays good defense, and runs like the hounds are after him. I see a great future for Mason.

Big league comparison: Jacoby Ellsbury (go big or go home... hopefully he suddenly discovers power too.)

If you haven't seen #5 Jose Campos, #4 Gary Sanchez and #3 Dellin Betances Prospect pieces yet, you must, click on their names to check them out. #2 is next...who will it be?



--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer



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TOP 5 YANKEE PROSPECTS OF 2012: #3

#3. Dellin Betances

RHP (4-9, 3.70 ERA, 126.1 IP, 10.1 K/9. 5.0 BB/9, 7.3 H/9, 1.361 WHIP, 21 games at AA Trenton, 4 at AAA Scranton Wilkes-Barre)

Another name you'll usually see ranked a bit higher, and if not, it's typically because Gary Sanchez is put ahead of him. However, as high as his ceiling may be, I find the security provided by my next pick makes him marginally more valuable.

Health has usually been an issue with Betances, but I'm happy to report that he made it through the 2011 season without any issue beyond a blister that caused him to miss a very brief amount of time.

Betances is what he is: a flame-throwing (think 93-97), towering right-handed pitcher with a filthy curveball, an improving change-up, and below-average command and control. Those who only briefly saw his somewhat embarrassing Major League debut in which he walked 4, hit one batter, and ultimately gave up 2 runs in 0.2 innings of work saw what Betances could potentially become: a disaster. However, rest assured Yankees fans, he is not doomed to break Javy Vazquez's record for hit batters in a row. For one brief, glorious 2010 season, Betances walked only 2.3 BB/9 while still striking out 11.4 per 9. The stuff is there; you'd be hard pressed to find many minor leaguers with better raw stuff than Betances. His control and command may have taken a step backwards this year, but he's shown that he can harness his abilities.
Remember, this is a big kid at 6'8”, and tall pitchers with power stuff, while generally having an advantage, can struggle to make the jump from thrower to pitcher. Look no further than shoo-in first ballot Hall of Famer Randy Johnson, who led the league in walks for three consecutive seasons with a BB/9 that moved in between 4.9 and 6.8(!). Frankly, that is Betances' ceiling. He could be a right-handed Randy Johnson who throws a curve instead of a slider, or he could crap out and be Daniel Cabrera. My prediction is ultimately moot, but I think with proper coaching he'll be able to develop a more consistent delivery, cut the walks back a bit, and at very least become a solid mid-rotation guy who never quite lives up to his talent level.

Big league comparison: AJ Burnett.

#2 is Next. If you haven't read #4 Gary Sanchez yet, click HERE. #5 was Jose Campos. Read about his HERE.



--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer

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TOP 5 YANKEE PROSPECTS OF 2012: #4

#4 Gary Sanchez

C .256/.335/.485, 17 home runs, 52 RBI, 82 games played at A Charleston

While Sanchez will likely find himself as high as #2 on many lists, I'm not quite that high on him. The power is undeniable; regardless of league an 18 year old clubbing 17 home runs in a mere 343 plate appearances is something to take note of. However, nearly as noteworthy are his 93 strikeouts and low average, both signs that he has trouble routinely making contact. Perhaps most alarming are his simply outrageous 26 passed balls in 60 games caught. For the sake of perspective, the most passed balls allowed by Jesus Montero, who is often cited for having below-average defense, in a single season was 15 with Scranton Wilkes-Barre in 105 games. In 45 more games, he allowed 11 fewer passed balls in his worst season. That's alarming considering various scouting reports last year were touting Sanchez's defense as a potential plus to his game. Worst of all might be makeup issues; he reportedly shows little interest in working hard to improve, which really came to a head when his inability to catch breaking balls led him to give up on catching them altogether. You can read a very in depth piece about that HERE, in Minor Matters.

Sanchez makes this list in spite of his problems for one reason: he turned 19 a month ago. Immaturity and hitches in his game are to be expected at this age. Somewhere beneath the skin of an unmotivated young man with problems making contact lies a potential superstar. Still, they make him even more of a crap shoot than a prospect already is. With such an uncertain future and his path to a big league starting role blocked until 2018 (assuming he could learn to play 1st and replace Tex, even longer if not), the Yankees may find him most valuable as a trading chip.

Big league comparison: Jorge Posada – Defense

#3 is next. If you haven't read our new list since the Montero trade, check out our new #5, Jose Campos. Look for the entire new list here on Bleeding Yankee Blue.



--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer

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TOP 5 YANKEE PROSPECTS OF 2012: AGAIN! #5

It's amazing how things work. Grant Cederquist, one of our writers slaved away to give you a thoughtful, compact series of the Top 5 Yankees Prospects of 2012 for the Yankees and then Jesus Montero gets traded and the Yankees pick up minor leaguer Jose Campos. Well, the poor guy needed to go back to the drawing board, and he did, for you guys! He's a stand up guy. So here we go again, the Top 5 Yankee Prospects of 2012...enjoy this! --Casey

#5. Jose Campos

RHP (5-5, 2.32 ERA, 81.1 IP, 9.4 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9,
0.971 WHIP in 14 starts at Short Season-A Everett)

I was a bit skeptical when I heard Noesi had been added into the package with Jesus Montero when the only player coming back other than Michael Pineda was a 19 year old pitcher who had yet to pitch 100 innings in a season. However, one mere glance at Campos' numbers were enough to convince me the Yankees easily won out in the secondary trade chip exchange.

Stuff wise, Campos throws a fastball that gets into the mid-90s with command and control not often found in such young pitchers, which he compliments with a low to mid-80s slider and an occasional low-70s curveball. As of now, he is able to locate the slider well and throw it for strikes, but the curveball is still a work in progress that is usually out of the zone. Such an advanced and well-used arsenal from a teenager is pretty much unheard of, and the 12-6 curve is nasty enough that given more time could develop into a true plus pitch. Absolutely no problems in the raw stuff department, and his stellar 1.4 BB/9 shows his advanced command. His walks will likely go up as he moves through the levels and faces batters with a better eye, but it should remain above average.Physically, Campos is already a pretty big presence on the mound at 6'4", 195 pounds, but there's still room to bulk up and add some power to his arsenal. Scouts have described him as having a "work-horse build," so fatigue is unlikely to force him into a bullpen role.

The Yankees could be aggressive and start their new young stud in high-A Tampa and look at a late season promotion to AA as they did with Manny Banuelos in 2010. The sudden surplus of major league and AAA arms will allow them to be very patient with their young starter (for once...), a welcome departure from the days of rushing guys up into relief roles. Of course if he's unable to develop his curveball or another change of pace pitch his power arsenal would allow for a fairly seamless transition to the bullpen, but Campos certainly has the potential to become a front end starter.

Major league comparison: Michael Pineda (seriously, they remind me of each other!)

Next up is #4....and then we continue on our countdown #1 of Bleeding Yankee Blue's Top 5 Yankee Prospects of 2012...again.




--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer



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WHY A FRANKENSTEIN DH MAKES SENSE

While the Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda trade no doubt disappointed the better half of the Yankees fanbase, I for one am ecstatic. Sure, I loved Montero as much as the next guy, if not more, and I still think he's going to be a stud. However, Pineda's ceiling is no lower than Montero's. In fact, seeing as he doesn't have an obvious shortcoming like Jesus (defense), one could certainly argue that Pineda is going to be the better player. 22 year olds who flirt with triple digits, throw a filthy breaking ball, and have a change-up (which was praised in the minors, we'll see if he features it more prominently than last year) are a very rare commodity. Pineda fills the formerly present pitching void and then some.
However, it's left us with an obvious hole in the team: the DH. One could certainly argue that rotating Jeter, ARod, and Andruw Jones through it while filling in the hole with Eduardo Nuñez would produce solid results, but why are we trying for adequate? We just gave up a potential middle of the order bat, we should be trying to make up for that. Rather than just reallocating what we already have to a new position and giving Nuñez more chances to make errors, I believe we need to bring someone in who will produce similar results to what we could've expected out of Montero.

So how do we do this without breaking the bank for Prince Fielder you ask? Simple: Carlos Peña.

Peña is more than likely to accept a 1 or 2 year deal at a relatively low price. He offers adequate defense as a backup first baseman and would serve as our primary DH.
But Carlos Peña alone isn't going to provide results like Montero would've is it? No, he won't but platoon him with the already present Andruw Jones and we'll not only have filled in for Montero's absence, but we'll have created one of the most effective DHs in baseball.

Andruw Jones' OPS against lefties in 2011 was .923, while Peña's OPS against righties was .892. Neither were particularly adept at hitting same side batters, and that wouldn't have to change in a platoon. Assuming 70% of the time the opposing pitcher is right handed, 30% of the time the opposing pitcher is left handed, and both players repeated their 2011 performance, using the equation .892(0.7) + .923(0.3), the expected OPS out of our Jones/Peña Franken-DH comes out to .903.

Bill James' predictions for Montero in 2012 were by far the most optimistic, and even those foresaw an OPS of .856. Obviously baseball is played on a field, not on paper, so comparing predictions may ultimately add up to nothing, but if both of these estimates were to end up accurate, the Peña/Jones combo would actually end up being more productive than Montero, and not insignificantly so. With the ever-enticing short porch and Peña's pull-or-strikeout swing, I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see his numbers against righties shoot up. Jones went through a pitiful first half before he made some adjustments over the All-Star break and came back mashing, so improvement isn't out of the question for him either.If this were the plan, it would also keep Joe from stupidly pulling Brett Gardner against lefties. While Gardner may not be a very good hitter against lefties, he still has a career .345 OBP against them, and regardless of offensive production his stellar defense still makes him a valuable player at all times.

It may not be "the Yankee way" to play moneyball and platoon their way to victory, but quite frankly, it works. Just ask Joe Maddon.

By the way, check out the latest from the Bronx Goblin HERE.



--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer



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WHY IT'S ABOUT TO GET HOT & HEAVY FOR CESPEDES

I was in denial for a few days.... but it’s clear... the Yankees aren’t getting Yu Darvish. As disappointing as it is, if the Rangers want to spend that money on bidding rights for Darvish, well, then you really can’t blame Cashman and the Steinbrenner boys for losing out. Word is the bigger the posting fee, the bigger contract Darvish is going to demand as a sort of way to protest the twisted posting system. What was looking like an $100 million commitment could quickly become a $130 million commitment. Even with only a bit more than $70 million of that counting towards payroll, that is a massive commitment for a team trying to cut payroll.

So while Darvish may not have been a financially viable option for the Bombers, there’s another big international name that could end up being the big off-season acquisition Yankees fans have become accustomed to. I’m talking, of course, about Yoennis Cespedes.Cespedes gained a cult following of sorts following his outlandish scouting video, but it revealed relatively little about him as a player. Sure the Star Wars intro was fun, the music was, at times, hilarious, and he displayed the most amazing rotisserie pit cleaning skills I’ve ever seen in the end, but as far as scouting goes, it helped very little beyond give some pretty phenomenal statistics from the equivalent of a minor league.

Apparently Cespedes got the message from all the GMs and decided to send in a video that is actually useful. I present to you, Yoennis Cespedes Encore...

Yoennis Cespedes Encore from Baseball2011DR on Vimeo.

The brilliant Star Wars introduction is still there, but there is a hell of a lot more hitting and running than before. He even decides that showing off his powerful arm from the outfield might be more helpful than catching balls behind his back. The displays of freakish athleticism are still there; he sprints 60 yards in a mere 6.41 seconds and shows off a 37” vertical leap (which according to the information provided in the video is somewhere in between Derrick Rose and Kobe Bryant). There’s not much you can say about Cespedes’ athleticism that hasn’t already been said. To keep it nice and short: He’s the new Bo Jackson.

Unlike Darvish, who the Yankees were long said to be wary of, the Yankees have been called early front runners for Cespedes along with the New York Marlins… rather Miami Marlins, sorry the money they suddenly have confused me, and the Tigers. ESPN’s Wallace Matthews doesn’t seem to think so, read HERE. Let's face it though, none of these guys really know and Matthews has been wrong before… actually he’s wrong a lot, just one of many reasons I’m not a fan. My gut says that no matter how they try to make it look, the Marlins don’t have enough money to offer any more than what Aroldis Chapman got, an offer the Yankees will certainly top. The Tigers could be a legitimate threat, but Detroit just doesn’t seem like an ideal destination for a Cuban player. In Miami or New York he’s got entire communities surrounding him to make him comfortable, but in Detroit there’s really nothing. If it comes down to New York or Detroit offering similar money, I bet everything that the Yankees get him.
Some may be wondering why exactly the Yankees need Cespedes? That’s a perfectly reasonable question...Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner, and Nick Swisher may very well have been the most valuable outfield trio in baseball last year (worth 7.0, 5.1, and 3.8 fWAR respectively for a total of 15.9 wins above replacement). All played solid defense, screw what UZR says, Gardner merely stole plays from Granderson which killed his numbers, and were potent offensive threats each for their own reason. Granderson has incredible power, Gardner has blistering speed, and Swish works the count and gets on base better than anyone on the team. It seems like the perfect combination, but what if you could take the weak link, Swisher, and replace him with a guy who is 5 years younger and can do everything? Would there be any reason not to do it?

I know it’s a marathon, not a sprint, but Nick's post-season struggles in my opinion make me disappointed with Swish sometimes. Sure, there’s no guarantee Cespedes becomes a post-season hero, but frankly it doesn’t get much worse than Swisher in that regard.

If you ask me, Cespedes is more than just a luxury or a way to flex our proverbial muscles on the international market before the CBA forces us to put away the big guns; he’s what the Yankees need right now. He’s an exciting young player with a lot of energy. Jesus Montero fits the first two points, but what’s desperately lacking on this club is energy. Being classy is great, I agree, but watch Cespedes as he hits an opposite field bomb at the World Baseball Classic in the video. He claps, pounds his chest, and proudly struts around the bases. Some of you may think he’s just being an ass, but the way I see it, as long as that energy comes from skill and not just from a tendency to be a goofball, it can only do good for the team.
Cespedes is a five-tool player, a guy who could become a perennial 30-30 threat. He may never endear himself to the crowd like Swish has, but he’s just the dose of youthful energy and incredible talent we need to get things rolling again. He won’t be cheap by any means, but he’s not going to cost any more than Swisher’s $10.25 million, and he sure as hell won’t require the Yankees to shell out well over $100 million like the Rangers will have to if they want Darvish. It may be hasty, but I say we do our best to put Swisher in a package for the number two or high end number three starter we’ve been desperately searching for, and bring in Cespedes and that's my opinion of course and you will have yours. I’d like to be sure we have Cespedes locked up and he can at least play adequately before we start dealing to make room for him, but by the trade deadline next season I’d like to see Cespedes patrolling right field on a regular basis. What do you think?



--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer

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YOENNIS CESPEDES: BYB'S TAKE

The most recent big name to pop up in the free agent market is Yoennis Cespedes. Cespedes recently defected from Cuba and is using the Dominican to showcase his talents. He became a cult Internet sensation in the past few days with his hilarious, bizarre scouting video that had big league executives all over scratching their heads. For those of you who missed it, it contains numerous explosive home runs put to Christopher Cross' "Sailing", a few pointless behind the back catches, Cespedes leg pressing a full rack of weights plus two friends lying on the bar, an extended core workout, shirtless sprinting, a 350 pound bench press, what I presume was his family dancing around, and a bloody pig on a rotisserie spit.Did I mention the opening credits are a full blown Star Wars homage beginning with the words "A New Hope"? The video is available for viewing on the MLB website, but it's missing the hysterically random ending minutes. Many blogs are claiming that the full video is nowhere to be found, but Bleeding Yankee Blue found it:



Baseball Prospectus' David Goldstein has a great, in-depth look at both the amazing video and Yoennis Cespedes' abilities HERE.

Cespedes is an extremely athletic right handed center fielder with plus-power and plus-speed. That power is especially noticeable to the opposite field, a trait that would no doubt help him thrive in the Bronx. Initial reports say that the Yankees are very high on Cespedes. He's expected to command an Aroldis Chapman type deal, which is to say a minimum of 6 years, $30 million. Frankly that's chump change for the Yankees and I have a feeling if they really like what they see they'll throw out something like 6 years, $45 million. Sure we've already got three solid outfielders, but Swisher is only under contract for one more year and there's currently a need for a fourth outfielder. If the Yankees really see something special in Cespedes, they'll net him with a great offer and plan to have him replace Swisher after this season, or even trade Nick Swisher to make room for him if he shows that he's all he's hyped up to be early on (hey, stranger things have happened). Sounds familiar right? Didn't Casey make that suggestion after the season ended about Swisher? Read MAKING NICK SWISHER SWEAT. HE wrote:

"...the Yankees should bring in a young outfield stud to help light a fire under Nick's ass after they pickup his $10.25 million option. Why? Just to give him a little competition as if to say, 'We don’t need you Nick, show us what you got.'"

Anyway, Most likely, the Yanks would overwhelm with a deal well above what the rest are offering and ask him that in exchange he spend one year in AAA. If you watched the video, you know this guy has an ego on par with that of Reggie Jackson, so whether or not he'd be willing to accept a minor league assignment is up in the air.

When asked if the Yankees have any interest, Cashman refused to give a straight answer, saying only “We’ll scout him, we’ll look at him, and we’ll make our own determination. If he’s a free agent, we’ll decide if we’ll make a play on him or not.” This isn't as ambiguous as it seems. When asked if there was any interest in Albert Pujols, Cashman said "No" straight out. No means no, but in Cashman-ese, what does “maybe” mean? Maybe I'm flat out wrong, but it sounds to me like the Yankees have pretty significant interest and could be considered one of the favorites to land Cespedes. That's just how Cashman works, he knows that if he says there's interest it'll drive the price way up on him, so he keeps mum for a while. He's been pretty quick to shut down rumored interest in players he has no actual interest in signing, so this raises a bit of a red flag.

Of course all the hype and praise is worthless without some numbers to back it up. To my knowledge there's no page that organizes his stats into nice, neat charts as are available for MLB players, but his page on BR Bullpen HERE, has all his season totals scattered throughout. In his most recent season, he hit to a .333/.424/.667 line, going yard 33 times and thus breaking the league's single season home run record. He also stole 11 bases in 14 tries over just 90 games.(In Photo: Mason Williams)
The idea makes perfect sense in many aspects, after all the Yankees outfield prospects are fairly weak above the low-A level where Mason Williams has developed into a top prospect, and a plus-speed and power center fielder about to enter his prime years is certainly a player to get excited about. However, in a few other ways, not the least of which is the fact that the current outfield combined for 14.3 wins above replacement in 2011 (including Andruw Jones and Chris Dickerson), it makes absolutely zero sense. Some fans would argue that it's simply a waste of resources that could be better allocated, namely towards bolstering the starting rotation. I see why some would oppose signing Cespedes, but personally I'd totally back the signing. Hank Steinbrenner is probably carrying the $30-45 million needed to sign Luke Skywalker... err... excuse me... Yoennis Cespedes in his back pocket right now. He has the potential to be a Matt Kemp type, but if he turns out to just be a bunch of flash, the Yanks can eat up a bad contract like no other ((see Igawa, Kei).

His impending free agency adds a lot of intrigue to what was looking to be an off season dedicated solely to pitching. We'll keep you up to date on what's quickly turning into one of the hottest topics of the off season.




--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer



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