HOW THE YANKEES STACK UP: STARTING ROTATION

We've examined the following here at BYB on how the Yankees will stack up in 2013: Catcher, 1st base, 2nd base, Shortstop, 3rd base, Left field, Centerfield and Right field.  Now, we look at the Starting Rotation...

Starting Rotation

The New York Yankees starters ranked sixth in the American League last season with a 4.04 ERA.  Their 71 wins was second to the Texas Rangers  (72) and their total innings pitched (1001.1) was behind only the Mariners (1002.2).

Overall one could say it was a fairly successful campaign for the starting five, but a closer look reveals a disturbing issue that needs to be addressed in 2013. 

Namely, the starters need to limit the number of long balls they allow.  In 2012 they were the worst in Major League Baseball yielding 143 round-trippers.   They were led by Phil Hughes (35 HR allowed) and Ivan Nova (28), and four of the five starters gave up 20 or more HR.  Even part-time starter Freddy Garcia teed up 18 wall-clearing shots for opposing batters.  In the post-season things weren’t much better as opponents clubbed 6 HR off starting pitchers in 9 games.

Where Manager Joe Girardi was depending upon his offense to provide game-turning long balls, instead his starters were handing them out to opponents like candy at a parade.

There is hope.

Ace CC Sabathia had what many considered to be an “off” year.  Even so, he won 15 games and posted a very respectable 3.38 ERA.  In his three previous seasons as a Yankee, Sabathia averaged 19 wins and a 3.18 ERA - and he had never allowed more than 20 HRs in a season (he gave up 22 in 2012).  Fans should expect a return to form for the southpaw that anchors the rotation.

Hiroki Kuroda was arguably the Yankees best pitcher in 2012.  He led the team in starts, innings pitched and tied for the most wins with Phil Hughes (16).  In July and August of last season, when the team suffered injuries to both Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, Kuroda had a 2.97 ERA and a microscopic 0.95 WHIP over 11 starts.  When the team needed someone to depend on, Hiroki stepped up.  At 38 years old the question will be whether he can maintain the level of play he established in 2012.  Given his calm demeanor, the veteran pitcher should turn in another solid year for our “Bombers”.

Andy Pettitte will have a full off season of preparation for the coming year and that should mean continued success for our beloved left hander.  Last season he led the rotation with a stellar 2.87 ERA but missed significant time (more than 2 months) with an ankle fracture the result of a line drive in a game against the Cleveland Indians.  At 40 years old his days with the Yankees certainly are numbered but given what he showed last season in leading the starters in WHIP (1.14) and holding opponents to a .232 batting average, one has to believe there is still something in the tank.

In spite of the home runs he allowed, Phil Hughes had a bounce-back year in 2012.  Over 191-plus innings pitched he threw to a 4.19 ERA and rediscovered the fastball many thought he had lost.  The 26-year old (yes, that’s right, he’s still only 26) was signed to a one year $7.15 million contract and will have plenty of incentive to raise the level of his game while reducing the number of home runs he allows.  He is solidly entrenched as the Yankees fourth starter.

The fifth spot in the rotation will be up for grabs during spring training.  The two primary competitors for the job are a pair of 26-year olds – Ivan Nova and David Phelps.

If last season was used to choose between them, Phelps would already have been named to the role.  During the year he held a 3.34 ERA and a respectable 1.19 WHIP (as a starter he was 2 – 2 with a 3.77 ERA).  In 99 1/3 innings, he struck out 96 and walked 38.  When the fifth spot was in turmoil last season, Phelps settled into the role and gave it stability.

Two seasons ago Ivan Nova looked like the right handed version of CC Sabathia.  As a 24-year old he went 16 – 4 with a 3.70 ERA.  Going into 2012, his spot in the rotation was more certain than that of Phil Hughes.

Oh what a difference a year makes.  Last year was a nightmare for the young hurler as he went 12 – 8 with a 5.02 ERA and gave up 194 hits, 56 walks and 28 home runs in a little over 170 innings pitched.  Many called for his demotion to the minor leagues and he wasn’t called upon at all in the post season. 

Nova enters 2013 with a renewed determination to reclaim a spot in the rotation and is one of a small group of players already working out at the Yankees minor league complex in Tampa.  If he can return to his 2011 form, fans can once again look forward to seeing him take the mound every fifth day in the Bronx.

Here’s what the rest of the AL East will offer in the form of rotations:

Toronto Blue Jays: On paper the starting five of RA Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero certainly looks impressive.  Some things to keep in mind:  How will Dickey handle facing American League lineups every time he steps on the mound (the Yankees were quite successful in the game they faced him)?  Will Josh Johnson manage to stay healthy all season – he’s only pitched more than 200 innings once in his career.  33-year old Mark Buehrle has been the closest thing to a punching bag for the Yankees that they can get.  In his career he is 1 – 5 with a 6.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and has allowed 10 HR verses New York.  Morrow and Romero are both excellent young pitchers to bring up the back end.

Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles starters ranked ninth in the AL last season with a 4.42 ERA and allowed the third most home runs (136).  This is a young rotation whose “senior” man is 31-year old Jason Hammel.  He is followed by 28-year old Wei-Yin Chen, 25-year old Chris Tillman, 29-year old Miguel Gonzalez, and 26-year old Brian Matusz.  They combined to go 5 – 4 with a 4.66 ERA against the Yankees (Gonzalez alone was 2 – 0 with a 2.63 ERA).  It is a rotation on the upswing and should keep Baltimore in contention for years to come.

Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays will once again field a strong rotation.  2012 Cy Young award winner David Price continues to only get better, and he is followed by Jeremy Hellickson (10 wins, 3.10 ERA), Matt Moore (11 wins, 3.81 ERA), Alex Cobb (11 wins, 4.03 ERA), and Jeff Niemann (3.08 ERA in 8 starts last year).  They are young (average age is 26.8) and last season led the American League in ERA (3.34) and strikeouts (900).  Frankly, this rotation is the one the rest of the division must keep up with.

Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox rotation is a mixed bag of talent, and it is anyone’s guess as to how it all will turn out.  Jon Lester heads up the starting five and comes off a disappointing 2012 season in which he was 8 – 14 with a career-high 4.82 ERA.  In 2010 Clay Buchholz was 17 – 7 with a 2.33 ERA.  He is 17 – 11 with a 4.02 ERA in the two years since.  26-year old southpaw Felix Doubront shows great promise (11 wins in 2012).  35-year old chicken and beer loving, meatball serving John Lackey will return to the rotation for the first time since 2011 and fans shouldn’t expect much but plenty of souvenirs beyond the outfield wall when he takes the mound.  36-year old Ryan Dempster was signed in the off season by the Red Sox and could prove to be a solid part of the rotation if he can handle the switch to the American League (after an entire career spent in the NL).

Here’s how we see the rotations of the AL East stacking up:

1. Tampa Bay: Young and already successful.  They are scary-good.
2. Baltimore: I just have a feeling that this team is on the rise. 
3. New York: A Sabathia bounce-back, healthy Pettitte for a full season, and the competition for the fifth spot will make this an under-the-radar strength for the Yankees.
4. Toronto: A very high-risk, high –reward situation for the Blue Jays.  If all pitch to what their “book value” is, this team will be in the post season.  This team has an “all or nothing” feel to it.
5. Boston: Lester should bounce back, Buchholtz is anyone’s guess, Doubront will improve, Lackey is a waste of money and Dempster could be a hidden gem.  I still see them fifth.

What do you think?  Let us know!


 
--Steve Skinner, BYB Guest Writer
Twitter: @oswegos1

 

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SWISHER'S EXPLODING AT THE RIGHT TIME

Nick Swisher makes me happy.  I like watching him in the field.  Sure, he’s not exactly the first baseman we’re used to, but for God sake, he’s out there every day, not complaining, just working.  I think all that confidence is starting to pay off.  Like the other day when he had to play that grounder down the first base line and turned and threw a bulls eye at Robinson Cano for the out...outstanding.

Finally Nick Swisher appears to be out of his slump and just rolling.  The big question I have for the Bronx Elvis is, can he keep it rolling as we push hard to the playoffs?  Let’s not forget, the Baltimore Orioles are pushing very very hard right now and through it all, the Yankees have managed to keep ahead.  Now, no doubt the Yankees had a huge opportunity Thursday night in Toronto and blew it 6-0, but that’s baseball, Brandon Morrow was good and the Yankees offense was terrible, but we need to forget it and win the rest, that's the bottom line! And we will, we have to.

Nick Swisher has hit 3 home runs in the last 5 games. There is no question he’s locked in. I do wonder if locking in now will translate to locking in in the playoffs.  Sure, I probably shouldn’t be speaking of the playoffs while I just mentioned just how dominant the Orioles have been, but I have confidence…I believe in my Yankees.

Over the past few years, Nick Swisher has been less than stellar during the playoffs.  Here’s his line, it was worse than I remember. 16-100, 4 HR, 5 RBI, .160 AVG.

So what’s the difference this time around? He needs to show up, for the Yankees and for him.  This is his Free agent year and while there is apart of me that believes he and the Yankees can work out a way for him to take a hometown discount to stay with the Yanks next year, there is no guarantee considering this is the first time in his career that he’s a free agent.  Do I want him to stay a New York Yankee? Yes. Does he want to be here? Sure, but every ballplayer has that ego, “What can I get in the free market?”  If you don’t believe that, you’re blind.

Sure right now Nick's got a .262 average and 24 homers and counting, but let’s hope he stays hot from now and through the playoffs, because the Yankees are coming, but we need our bats hot…are you listening Nick? No pressure.

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SLEEPER

In the seventh inning of Thursday night's series opener in Toronto, Yankee announcer Michael Kay wondered if the Rogers Centre atmosphere was negatively impacting the performance of the Yankee team.  Kay characterized the Yankee performance as "sleepwalking."  Fans who watched may have other theories, but mine tilts toward starting pitching as the explanation.  Very simply Ivan Nova was horrid, again, and Jays' starter Brandon Morrow looked like he was on a late drive to claim the AL Cy Young Award!

Morrow shut down the Yankees for seven full innings in spite of a decline in his fast ball velocity from a top speed of 95 to a low of 88 by the sixth inning.  Regardless, he allowed only four Yankee hits and only two innings of anything resembling a Yankee threat to score even a single run.  In the fourth inning, Robinson Cano reached on a one-out single to center.  Nick Swisher ripped a deep fly ball to left that was caught by Anthony Gose as he crashed into the electronic scoreboard in left.  Cano running all the way was easily doubled off first by Gose and the relay throw by Kelly Johnson.  Inning over; Yankee threat squashed.

In the seventh, Cano led off with a double to left and Swisher followed with a walk.  Two on and no outs and Morrow obviously tiring.  Nevertheless, Morrow rallied and struck out Curtis Granderson who was "K'ed" for the 189th time this season.  Granderson personified Yankee offensive futility.  He is 2 for 16 on the road trip and his average has plummeted to .228.  Yikes!  Morrow followed his strike out of Granderson by forcing fly outs from Russell Martin and Raul Ibanez.  Inning over; Yankee threat squashed.

As for Mr. Nova's performance, he could not come close to matching Morrow.  He allowed a walk to defensive hero Gose in the third inning and that was followed immediately by a "gopher ball" to Brett Lawrie.  The two-run shot was Lawrie's 10th HR of the season.  In the fifth, Nova allowed two more runs on a single by Gose, a ground out by Lawrie that advanced Gose to second, a bunt single by Colby Rasmus, and a two-run double to right off the bat of Edwin Encarnacion. 

The Yankee bullpen, in the persons of Derek Lowe and David Aardsma, allowed tack-on runs in the seventh and eighth innings to end all doubt and eliminate any Yankee hope of a late rally.

By the time the post game rolled around, even Jack Curry was referring to the Yankees as a "sleepy" team.  Obviously New York did not play like a championship caliber team in quest of a division championship.  The Yankees missed a golden opportunity to widen the lead over the Orioles to two games.  Instead, the AL East Division race is a tight one-game differential.

Travel fatigue, lack of quality starting pitching, advanced age and declining performance, too many 'swing and miss' guys on the offensive side are just some of the theories that abound when the warts of this Yankee team are on display as prominently as they were on Thursday night.  Fans can decide for themselves what the causes of such a devastating loss actually are.  Regardless of the reasons, the Yankees' division championship hill got a little steeper on this late-September Thursday night.

Final score:  Toronto 6  New York 0.    

--Frank Gentry, BYB Writer

Twitter: @yankeefrank23

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WHY THE YANKEES MUST REGROUP

The Yankees were lifeless tonight and I really can't explain it. Brandon Morrow is good, but he's not Nolan Ryan and the Yankees can hit the kid, but didn't and now it's 2 losses in a row against the Blue Jays coming off the All-Star game and like I've told you, the division teams mean something... you have to win those games. Well, the Yankees aren't and that's no way to win the division. Every game counts now... let's go guys, snap out of it.(Photo: Getty)
Give credit to Morrow. He went 6 2/3 innings and he was strong, giving up only 1 run from the Yankees, Eduardo Nunez knocked in Jorge Posada. The only other highlight was Nick Swisher having 2 hits. At least he's hitting, no one else is.
(Photo: Getty)
Freddy Garcia pitched 5 innings and allowed 5 earned runs. He gave up 7 hits and struck out 5 and walked 4. To me, it was not Garcia's best performance and no doubt that right now Brian Cashman is pacing a bit, wondering what happened to both Colon and Garcia. I will bet the Yankees get a top starter by the deadline, that's how things are unfolding any way.

I don't know what to say, the Blue Jays have outscored the Yankees 23 to 8 in the last 2 games and that's just disgraceful. What the Yankees need is a terrific pitching performance, someone to keep them in the game so the Yankees can work out their hitting kinks and get things moving in the right direction. The Yankees stink right now... fact. Read the full game recap HERE.

Final Score: Blue Jays 7 - Yankees 1. What has happened my team? Very disappointing.

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