THE PROBLEM WITH ALEX RODRIGUEZ

Here's another great opinion and legal perspective about Alex Rodriguez from guest writer Douglas Solomon.  Thank you Doug!

-Casey

The Yankees have a very serious and under reported problem with the 2014 roster.  We all know already that they will try to stay under the $189 million cap, which is actually $177 million ($12 million must be assumed for benefits),  so, if ARod gets at least a 162 game suspension in the arbitration, the Yankees will have the full $177 million to spend.  But... if ARod wins the hearing and gets, for example, only 50 games, the Yanks will have significantly less than $177 million to spend. I could be about $160 million.  In the end, the outcome of that hearing has about an $18 million swing in terms of what the Yankees can spend. Now that we got through the money... here's the issue...

The article by Andy McCullough of the Star Ledger indicated that after two weeks of the hearing, it's not even close to being over.  They are now in a recess and will not resume this hearing until November 18th!  ARod’s lawyer says that ARod’s witnesses will still take another week of testimony to conclude.  Then Major League Baseball may thereafter have rebuttal witnesses.  The article indicates that the arbitrator will have 25 days to issue a decision thereafter, but that does not account for written closing briefs, which are customary in discharge arbitration cases.  Even with an expedited briefing schedule, I don’t see how they conclude this hearing until late-December and thus, it seems likely that we are looking at late-January or even early February before we get a decision. It's nuts!

By late-January, most or all of the big free agents will be gone.  So the Yanks have two choices:

1. Assume that ARod will be suspended for the entire season and spend as if they have the extra $25 million

or

2. Spend no more than $160 million or so until getting the arbitration decision, at which point, they can spend the extra $18 million if ARod’s suspension is upheld

If they choose Option 1, they risk being over the $189 million mark if ARod is not suspended for at least 162 games.  But if they choose Option 2, they will vastly limit their ability to sign free agents and by the time they learn they have the extra $18 million, there will be nobody worthwhile left to sign.

I hope that they choose Option 1, but if they do not, they will reach $160 million very quickly and not be able to field a competitive team in 2014.

My take of course.

 

--Douglas Solomon, BYB Guest Writer



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