BANUELOS & BETANCES: A KILLER B'S UPDATE

It’s really no secret that the trio of Killer B’s, that is Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, and Andrew Brackman, were among the game’s most hyped prospects going into last season. All three placed on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list after putting up stellar performances in High-A Tampa and AA Trenton and the Yankees blogosphere was absolutely brimming with enthusiasm; "Future ace" this, "intimidating frame" that… you would have thought they were all established major leaguers on ten year contracts.

We at Bleeding Yankee Blue, myself in particular, played no small part in this hype. The scouting reports were sparkling and the numbers, for the most part, supported it. So where have these wonderful young arms gone since we last checked in? To put it frankly, they have not exactly gone where we expected.

As you know if you read our stuff or any other Yankees blog regularly, the Yankees declined to exercise Andrew Brackman’s 2012 option and he signed with the Cincinnati Reds. I personally thought he had some promise out of the bullpen, but his option came with a salary raise and they deemed that he wasn’t worth the risk.
And then there were two...

Dellin Betances

• 2012 with AAA Scranton: 3-5, 5.92/5.98 (e/f), 8.23 K/9, 8.09 BB/9(!!!), 1.16 HR/9, .240 BAA, 62.1 IP (Last outing not recorded here)

Barring a miraculous turnaround, Dellin Betances is simply not what he was hyped up to be. Despite absolutely filthy stuff, including a mid to upper 90's fastball, a biting power curve in the low 80's, and a change-up that was not as bad as you might expect from him, his mechanically unsound delivery will prevent him from reaching his sky high ceiling. His back leg collapses with every pitch, he loses his arm slot, and generally every moving part is a bit different from pitch to pitch. The result? Awful command and control, as indicated by the eye-popping 8.09 BB/9.

So why did he have so much success in the lower levels? It’s debatable, you could certainly assume that batter’s eyes have gotten better as he’s moved up the ladder, and while a power curve with a ton of movement following a blistering fastball may fool the Gulf Coast League regardless of location, the players in the International League are experienced enough to tell he is almost never near the zone. However, the even more disconcerting answer is that his mechanics may have actually deteriorated. It could be a lasting result of his tendency towards injury or just that he’s formed bad habits over time. The fact of the matter is he just cannot consistently repeat his delivery, and if you can’t repeat your delivery, you can’t throw strikes.

All hope isn’t lost for Betances however. As I've said, he still has some of the nastiest raw stuff you’ll find in the minors, as indicated by the low batting average against. While it may take a small miracle for him to revitalize his starting career, finding him a home in the bullpen is not far-fetched at all. I doubt they’ll make the move until late this season, perhaps as a potential late season reinforcement, but he’s well suited to the role. He’s been out a while so you may have forgotten, but David Robertson, he of the career 4.7 BB/9, is not exactly the master of throwing strikes. Mariano Rivera may have made us forget, but relievers do not need impeccable control of their pitches to succeed. Betances has power, strikeout stuff (career 10.1 K/9) that is quite likely to play up well out of the bullpen. With Robertson clearly better suited for a setup role, Rafael Soriano only hanging around through next season, and Phil Hughes perhaps finally settling into life as a starter, it wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world to begin grooming him to be Mo’s replacement, whenever that does become necessary. The front office may see it as giving up on a big project and admitting defeat, but it may the best way to salvage some value. If you recall, they pulled Betances out of the 8th round, so this isn’t a Hughes situation where going to the bullpen is some colossal failure. It may not be what they had in mind, but there’s no real shame if that ends up happening.

Manny Banuelos

• 2012 with AAA Scranton: 0-2, 4.50/3.83 (e/f), 8/13 K/9, 4.98 BB/9, 0.52 HR/9, .299 BAA, 34.1 IP

The crown jewel of the system has not quite dominated the way many expected him to. While his ERA isn’t downright atrocious like Betances, it’s merely average at best. His FIP is solid at 3.83, which opens up the possibility that he is out pitching his basic numbers. Still, the numbers are not exactly what you like to see from a hyped up future number one or two starter who is expected to get a look for the Bigs next year. Manny B has also had some injury concerns, starting with a back issue that shelved him for most April and before moving on to an elbow injury that has kept him out since May 18th. The injury is not considered to be serious, but naturally the Yankees want to be as careful as possible. Manny represents cheap, potentially high quality starting, perhaps the most crucial type of player in cutting payroll to meet the goals of the 2014 austerity plan. To risk his health is to risk the success of the team and/or the ability to avoid major luxury tax penalties.

Beyond the basic stat line, the news on Manny is actually fairly good. While two early performances in which he combined for 6 ER and 7 BB across only 5.1 IP have made his numbers ugly, those came right before being placed on the DL. Not that Manny has displayed phenomenal command these past few years, but 6 walks in only 2 innings is a bit too much, so I personally find it hard to believe his early struggles weren’t caused at least in part by the back injury.

Upon his return, he pitched to a 2.89 ERA across 18.2 innings with a 9.64 K/9 and a 1.44 BB/9 before being sidelined again. To make those numbers even more impressive, all 3 walks and 5 of the 6 runs he gave up in those 18.2 innings came in his final start before landing on the DL again. Again, we may not be able to completely attribute his struggles in that start to an injury, but there is little doubt that it played some part in it.

So if you take out starts immediately preceding his two injuries, Manny has pitched to a 0.61 ERA with a 9.20 K/9 and 0.00 BB/9. I understand that it may be unreasonable to completely disregard those three starts, after all you can take out AJ Burnett’s bad nights in 2011 and suddenly he looks like an ace, but I also think it is unreasonable to ignore the sheer dominance Manny has displayed when completely healthy. At just a bit over twenty-one years old, Manny has plenty of time to continue developing, and is already showing flashes of his potential brilliance. The numbers may not be flashy on the surface, but unlike his fellow Bs, there’s still no reason to bet against him becoming a successful major league starter.

The infamous rule of three really seems to be in effect here. For those of you who don’t know, the rule of three states that when there are three supposedly elite pitching prospects, one will become a successful starter, one will become a reliever, and one will flame out. This seemed to hold true with Ian Kennedy, the successful starter, Joba, the reliever (when he’s healthy that is), and Phil Hughes, who until very recently seemed to be flaming out. Only time will tell if the prophecy holds entirely true this time, but it certainly seems to be moving in that direction.

After a long hiatus to follow the hockey season, I have to say it is great to back and writing for you all. I look forward to my continued contribution here… so let’s go Yankees.

--Grant Cederquist, BYB Contributor

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