Thursday, November 5, 2015


despite what they say!

I know, I'm pretty blown away by the results as well.  Alex Rodriguez did not get the American League Comeback player of the year award... Prince Fielder did.  Can someone explain to me why? I guess they just felt as though rewarding a former PEDs user would be bad business. Whatever the case, I need to say, I'm calling bullshit.

The Washington Post even editorializes that ARod deserved it over Fielder.  Hell, Fielder probably agrees.

The Post writes: " we need to turn to expectations heading into the season to see which player truly had a “comeback” season.

According to the 2015 ZiPS projections by Dan Szymborski, both Fielder and Rodriguez were expected to contribute 1.2 wins above replacement. Fielder’s 1.6 wins above replacement ranked fifth on the team while Rodriguez produced an fWAR of 2.7, which ranked fourth on the Yankees. So right away, Rodriguez exceeded expectations by a larger margin than Fielder.

Szymborski’s projections gave Fielder a 82.7 percent chance at slugging better than .400, and he did, finishing the season with at .474. Rodriguez, on the other hand, had a 41.3 percent chance at hitting the same mark, and finished the season at .486. So not only higher, but also with the chances less in his favor.

Same for home runs: Fielder had a 6.7 percent chance at hitting 30 or more over the fence while Rodriguez had just a 0.3 percent chance, and Rodriguez hit 10 more than Fielder to boot."

I know, nerdy stats and I never get that detailed because I prefer the eye test, normal statistics and full season analysis, because when you think about it honestly, Fielder missed a portion of a season with a neck injury in 2014, while ARod missed the entire season.  Coming back from that and putting up the numbers ARod did... it's just kind of a no brainer to me.

In other words, it's my opinion that ARod wins. That's it.  But again, this is political when it comes to MLB.  They clearly didn't want to reward Alex Rodriguez after his PEDs situation.  While Alex has fallen into favor and we're seeing the guys true personality right now... it's not enough... in the end Fielder wins.

And life goes on.

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